|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Kuwait Insurance Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, March 2009, Pages: 73
The Kuwait Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's insurance industry.
The global growth outlook has worsened considerably over the last few months, and our previous optimism, not only towards Kuwait but also to most other emerging and developed markets, has dampened. Our core scenario is for global growth to slow from 2.9% in 2008 to 2.0% in 2009, before making a tentative recovery to 3.5% in 2010, and then accelerating to average 4.2% for the remainder of the forecast period. We have revised down our average OPEC Basket price forecast to US$71.50/US$ for 2009 (albeit expecting a bounce to US$81.50/bbl from 2010-2013).
In spite of this, we think that existing momentum and the government's willingness to buy its way out of this crisis will keep growth on an even keel, and although we have adjusted our forecasts since our last Business Forecast Report, we still see a fairly robust rate. Many governments worldwide are looking towards fiscal stimulus to boost economic prospects, and Kuwait is better placed than most to do this, with estimated sovereign wealth fund assets of US$200bn and a projected budget surplus of US$19.3bn in 2007/08 (final figures have not yet been released). We actually think the worst of the effects will be felt over the longer term, as Kuwait makes the transition from US$150/bbl oil to US$80/bbl oil (or worse), and existing resources are depleted. Against this backdrop, we see growth slowing from a projected 7.2% in 2008, to a still impressive 5.4% in 2009, 5.3% in 2010 and then to an average annual 3.7% thereafter. Government spending, whether via the official budget or the sovereign wealth fund, will be the major driver of growth over 2009: we are forecasting an 8% real rise in this component of GDP.
Since the last quarter, we have made two major changes to the data in this report. First, we have – to the greatest extent possible – incorporated hard figures that have been made available by the regulator(s) and trade association(s) in each country. In some cases, therefore, we have begun to include numbers that pertain to the development of the insurance sector through the early stages of the global financial crisis. Second, we have extended our forecasts out to 2013. In all cases, we have reviewed the key growth drivers – non-life penetration and life density – that we had incorporated in our forecasts.
The global financial crisis is likely to affect the various segments of the global insurance industry in different ways. In many countries, especially in Europe, the coming recession points to softness in the nonlife segment. In many cases, numbers of policies may fall and there should be downwards pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem for the life segment in almost every country is the extreme volatility of financial markets. Over the longer term however, the fortunes of life insurance will likely recover thanks to the secular growth of organised savings in most countries. China – where the larger insurance companies continue to achieve double-digit growth in premium income – is a good example of this. Some particular niches should also do well in the current environment, such as legal liability insurance.
In the Middle East and North Africa, we profile 17 companies. These are AGF, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, ERGO, Eureko, Fortis, Generali, Groupama, HSBC Insurance, Liberty Mutual, MAPFRE, RSA, UNIQA and Zurich Financial Services. We also look at a number of the smaller local firms that are active in the region, particularly in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The Insurance Business Environment Rating is 45.3
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Also available
Kuwait Insurance Report Q1 2008
Kuwait Insurance Report Q3 2008
Kuwait Insurance Report Q4 2008
Customers who bought this item also bought
Kuwait Insurance Report Q1 2008
Kuwait Insurance Report Q3 2008
Kuwait Insurance Report Q4 2008
Kuwait Insurance Report Q3 2009
Kuwait Reinsurance Company K.S.C.C. - Financial Services - Insurance - SWOT Report
Kuwait Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2008
Kuwait Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008
Executive Report on Strategies in Kuwait
Business Laws of Kuwait
Insurance in China
Insurance Agencies
Insurance in Japan
|
|
|
|
