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Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009
Business Monitor International, April 2009, Pages: 91
The Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Argentina remains ranked just eighth among the 10 major pharmaceutical markets surveyed in the Q209 Business Environment Ratings. While the country’s substantial and growing population theoretically represents a strong draw for foreign companies, the government’s lax stance on bioequivalance has resulted in many multinationals choosing to close down their local production facilities. The lack of patent protection, the imposition of strict price controls, and the government’s bias towards local producers in its purchasing policies are among the most frequent complaints levelled against the country’s operating environment. Consequently, without major improvements in intellectual property (IP) and pricing rules, the larger and better-regulated markets of Brazil, Mexico and even Colombia will continue to attract the lion’s share of multinational investment in the region, Moreover, despite double-digit growth rates experienced in 2006 and 2007, all the more important given the economic collapse just a few years earlier, in the period between 2008 and 2013, pharmaceutical market values are forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.10% in US dollar terms, rising from ARS15.5bn (US$4.77bn) to ARS21.91bn (US$5.04bn). The weakening peso will result in a 7.17% CAGR, although this weakness of local currency will also continue to stimulate exports - one of the already fastest-growing areas of the market. Over the next five years, exports are expected to post a CAGR of 4.80%, above that for imports, as well as substantially above the overall market.
Given the regulatory and price constraints faced by both foreign and domestic producers, local drugmakers are increasingly focusing on fast-growing emerging markets, such as Russia and Pakistan, which are also considerably more lightly regulated. To this end, in February 2009, Laboratorios Bagó finalised a joint venture (JV) with Pakistani company Ferozsons Laboratories that envisages the creation of a new biogeneric therapies plant in Pakistan. The move follows Bagó’s exports foray into Russia, Pakistan, Vietnam and a number of other developing countries. In the longer-term, however, the pressure on the Argentina’s regulator and general improvements in regulatory systems in other key Latin American markets will inevitably force tighter regulation and enforcement of bioequivalence rules in Argentina, which should allow exports to more lucrative North American and European markets.
In the meantime, despite the stronger than expected Q408 real GDP growth figure, we continue to believe that the Argentine economy is likely to suffer substantially in 2009. In fact, we have revised down our real GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to -1.0%, and also expect a 0.9% contraction in 2010, and a growth of just 1.2% in 2011. A run on the peso as a result of the government's inflationary fiscal policy is risking a shift of individuals’ and business money out of pesos and into dollars in anticipation of more inflation. This would undermine private business activity and economic growth.
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