The 2009 Report on Fabricated Metal Products Manufacturing: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, May 2009, Pages: 423
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for fabricated metal products manufacturing across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for fabricated metal products manufacturing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for fabricated metal products manufacturing is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for fabricated metal products manufacturing at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for fabricated metal products manufacturing on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for fabricated metal products manufacturing across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for fabricated metal products manufacturing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for fabricated metal products manufacturing. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just fabricated metal products manufacturing.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “fabricated metal products manufacturing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within fabricated metal products manufacturing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “fabricated metal products manufacturing” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of fabricated metal products manufacturing, please refer to the Web site at http://www.icongrouponline.com/codes/NAICS.html. The NAICS code for fabricated metal products manufacturing is 332. It is for this definition of fabricated metal products manufacturing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Fabricated metal products manufacturing” is specifically defined as follows:
332
Industries in the Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing subsector transform metal into intermediate or end products, other than machinery, computers and electronics, and metal furniture or treating metals and metal formed products fabricated elsewhere. Important fabricated metal processes are forging, stamping, bending, forming, and machining, used to shape individual pieces of metal; and other processes, such as welding and assembling, used to join separate parts together. Establishments in this subsector may use one of these processes or a combination of these processes.
The NAICS structure for this subsector distinguishes the forging and stamping processes in a single industry. The remaining industries, in the subsector, group establishments based on similar combinations of processes used to make products.
The manufacturing performed in the Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing subsector begins with manufactured metal shapes. The establishments in this sector further fabricate the purchased metal shapes into a product. For instance, the Spring and Wire Product Manufacturing industry starts with wire and fabricates such items.
Within manufacturing there are other establishments that make the same products made by this subsector; only these establishments begin production further back in the production process. These establishments have a more integrated operation. For instance, one establishment may manufacture steel, draw it into wire, and make wire products in the same establishment. Such operations are classified in the Primary Metal Manufacturing subsector.
3321
Forging and Stamping
33211
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing forgings from purchased metals; (2) manufacturing metal custom roll forming products; (3) manufacturing metal stamped and spun products (except automotive, cans, coins); and (4) manufacturing powder metallurgy products. Establishments making metal forgings, metal stampings, and metal spun products and further manufacturing (e.g., machining, assembling) a specific manufactured product are classified in the industry of the finished product. Metal forging, metal stamping, and metal spun products establishments may perform surface finishing operations, such as cleaning and deburring, on the products they manufacture.
332111
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing iron and steel forgings from purchased iron and steel by hammering mill shapes. Establishments making iron and steel forgings and further manufacturing (e.g., machining, assembling) a specific manufactured product are classified in the industry of the finished product. Iron and steel forging establishments may perform surface finishing operations, such as cleaning and deburring, on the forgings they manufacture.
3321111
HOT IMPRESSION DIE IMPACT, PRESS, AND UPSET STEEL FORGINGS
33211111
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset carbon steel forgings
3321111101
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset carbon steel forgings
33211112
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset alloy steel forgings, excluding stainless and hi_temp
3321111206
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset alloy steel forgings, excluding stainless and hi_temp
33211113
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset stainless steel forgings
3321111311
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset stainless steel forgings
33211114
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset hi_temp (iron, nickel, or cobalt_ base alloy) steel forgings
3321111416
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset hi_temp (iron, nickel, or cobalt_ base alloy) steel forgings
3321113
COLD IMPRESSION DIE IMPACT, PRESS, AND UPSET STEEL FORGINGS
33211131
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset steel forgings
3321113101
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset carbon steel forgings
3321113106
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset alloy steel forgings
3321113111
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset stainless steel and hi~temp (iron, nickel, or cobalt~base alloy) forgings
3321113116
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset stainless steel and hi_temp (iron, nickel, or cobalt_base alloy) forgings
3321115
Hot impression die impact, press and upset ferrous forgings
33211151
Seamless rolled ring forgings, ferrous, made from purchased iron and steel
3321115101
Seamless carbon steel and alloy steel rolled ring forgings (excluding stainless and hi_temperature), made from purchased iron and steel
3321115106
Seamless stainless steel and hi_temperature (iron, nickel, or cobalt_base alloy) rolled ring forgings, made from purchased iron and steel
332111511
Carbon steel
332111513
Alloy steel, except stainless and high-temperature
332111515
Stainless steel
332111517
High-temperature iron, nickel and cobalt-base alloys
3321116
Cold impression die impact, press and upset ferrous forgings
3321117
Seamless rolled-ring ferrous forgings
33211171
Open die and smith forgings (hammer and press), ferrous, made from purchased iron and steel
3321117101
Carbon and alloy steel open die and smith forgings (hammer and press), excluding stainless and hi_temperature, made from purchased iron and steel
3321117106
Stainless steel and hi_temperature (iron, nickel, or cobalt_base alloy) open die and smith forgings (hammer and press), made from purchased iron and steel
3321118
Open die or smith (hammer or press) ferrous forgings
332111M
Miscellaneous receipts
332111P
Primary products
332111S
Secondary products
332111SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
332112
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing nonferrous forgings from purchased nonferrous metals by hammering mill shapes. Establishments making nonferrous forgings and further manufacturing (e.g., machining, assembling) a specific manufactured product are classified in the industry of the finished product. Nonferrous forging establishments may perform surface finishing operations, such as cleaning and deburring, on the forgings they manufacture.
3321121
Other nonferrous forgings, inc. cold impres sion die impact and seamless rolled
33211211
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset aluminum and aluminum alloy forgings
3321121101
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset aluminum and aluminum alloy forgings
3321121115
Hot impression die press and input aluminum and aluminum alloy forgings (excluding impact extrusions)
3321121125
Hot impression impact aluminum and aluminum alloy forgings (excluding collapsible tubes and cans)
33211212
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset titanium and titanium alloy forgings
3321121206
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset titanium and titanium alloy forgings
33211213
Other hot impression die impact, press, and upset nonferrous
3321121311
Hot impression die impact, press, and upset copper and copper_base alloy forgings
3321121316
Other hot impression die impact, press, and upset nonferrous forgings
3321122
OTHER NONFERROUS FORGINGS
33211221
Other nonferrous forgings
3321122101
Cold impression die impact, press, and upset nonferrous forgings
3321122106
Seamless rolled ring nonferrous forgings
3321122111
Open die or smith nonferrous forgings, hammer or press
3321125
Hot impression die impact, press and upset nonferrous forgings
332112521
Aluminum and aluminum alloy
332112523
Titanium and titanium alloy
332112527
Other nonferrous hot impression die forgings
332112M
Miscellaneous receipts
332112P
Primary products
332112S
Secondary products
332112SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
332114
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in custom roll forming metal products by use of rotary motion of rolls with various contours to bend or shape the products.
3321140
CUSTOM ROLL FORM PRODUCTS
33211401
Custom carbon steel roll form products
3321140101
Custom carbon steel roll form products
33211402
Custom stainless steel roll form products
3321140206
Custom stainless steel roll form products
33211403
Custom aluminum roll form products
3321140311
Custom aluminum roll form products
33211404
Other custom metal roll form products
3321140416
Other custom metal roll form products
3321148
Custom roll forming
332114M
Miscellaneous receipts
332114P
Primary products
332114S
Secondary products
332114SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
332115
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in stamping metal crowns and closures, such as bottle caps and home canning lids and rings.
3321150
CROWNS AND CLOSURES
33211501
Metal commercial closures and metal home_canning closures, except crowns
3321150101
Metal and metal_composite closures, including home_canning closures
3321150103
Metal crowns (including soft drinks, beer, and all other)
3321150106
All other metal closures, including beer and roll_ons
3321151
Metal commercial closures
3321154
Metal crowns
332115M
Miscellaneous receipts
332115P
Primary products
332115S
Secondary products
332115SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
332116
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing unfinished metal stampings and spinning unfinished metal products (except crowns, cans, closures, automotive, and coins). Establishments making metal stampings and metal spun products and further manufacturing (e.g., machining, assembling) a specific product are classified in the industry of the finished product. Metal stamping and metal spun products establishments may perform surface finishing operations, such as cleaning and deburring, on the products they manufacture.
3321161
Metal job stampings, except automotive
33211611
Recreational vehicle metal job stampings (motor homes, travel trailers, etc.)
3321161101
Recreational vehicle metal job stampings (motor homes, travel trailers, etc.)
3321161115
Agricultural equipment metal job stampings, including tractor
33211612
Motor and generator metal job stampings
3321161205
Motor and generator metal job stampings
33211613
Other metal job stampings
3321161311
Aviation metal job stampings
3321161331
Furniture metal job stampings
3321161352
Radio and phonograph metal job stampings, except automotive
3321161354
Television metal job stampings
3321161388
Other industrial equipment metal job stampings
3321161398
Other metal job stampings, except automotive
33211614
Computer and office machine metal job stampings
3321161421
Computer metal job stampings
3321161441
Office machine metal job stampings, excluding computer
33211615
Electrical appliance metal job stampings (residential, commercial, and industrial)
3321161525
Electrical appliance metal job stampings, except refrigeration and laundry equipment
3321161561
Refrigeration metal job stampings (residential, commercial, and industrial)
3321161571
Stove, heater, and air_conditioner metal job stampings (residential, commercial, and industrial), except automotive
3321161584
Laundry equipment metal job stampings (residential, commercial, and industrial)
3321163
METAL SPINNING PRODUCTS, EXCLUDING COOKING AND KITCHEN UTENSILS
33211631
Metal spinning products, excluding cooking and kitchen utensils
3321163100
Metal spinning products, excluding cooking and kitchen utensils
3321165
Other stamped and pressed metal end products
33211651
Stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled metal architectural parts (exterior and interior), including store front and curtain wall components
3321165101
Stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled metal architectural parts (exterior and interior), including store front and curtain wall components
33211652
Stamped and pressed metal end products, excluding spinning products and metal electric enclosures
3321165211
Other stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled products (including refrigerator and laundry equipment parts and commercial and hospital utensils), except cooking and kitchen utensils
3321165221
Stamped and pressed metal chemical milling products, milled contoured metal, and clad and bonded metal products
3321165231
Perforated metal end products
3321165241
Stamped and pressed galvanized steel pails, ash cans, garbage cans, tubs, etc., excluding shipping containers
3321165251
Other stamped and pressed metal pails, ash cans, garbage cans, tubs, etc., excluding shipping containers (including other grades of steel)
3321165271
Stamped and pressed metal mailboxes (commercial and multiple unit residential)
3321165281
Stamped and pressed metal toolboxes
3321165291
Other stamped and pressed metal end products, excluding spinning products
33211653
Metal electronic enclosures (stamped and~or pressed), excluding computer stampings
3321165361
Metal electronic enclosures (stamped and~or pressed), excluding computer stampings
3321166
STAMPED AND PRESSED METAL END PRODUCTS, INCLUDING VITREOUS (PORCELAIN) ENAMELED PRODUCTS
33211661
Stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled metal architectural parts (exterior and interior), including store front and curtain wall components
3321166101
Stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled metal architectural parts (exterior and interior), including store front and curtain wall components
33211662
Stamped and pressed metal end products, excluding spinning products and metal electric enclosures
3321166211
Other stamped and pressed vitreous (porcelain) enameled products (including refrigerator and laundry equipment parts and commercial and hospital utensils), except cooking and kitchen utensils
3321166221
Stamped and pressed metal chemical milling products, milled contoured metal, and clad and bonded metal products
3321166231
Perforated metal end products
3321166295
Other stamped and pressed metal end products, excluding spinning products
33211663
Metal electronic enclosures (stamped and pressed), excluding computer stampings
3321166361
Metal electronic enclosures (stamped and pressed), excluding computer stampings
332116M
Miscellaneous receipts
332116P
Primary products
332116S
Secondary products
332116SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
332117
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing powder metallurgy products by compacting them in a shaped die and sintering. Establishments in this industry generally make a wide range of parts on a job or order basis.
3321170
Powder metallurgy parts
33211701
Copper and copper_base alloy
3321170106
Copper and copper_base alloy
33211702
Iron and steel powder metallurgy parts
3321170211
Iron and steel powder metallurgy parts
33211703
Tungsten metal and tungsten_base alloy powder metallurgy parts
3321170321
Tungsten metal and tungsten_base alloy powder metallurgy parts
33211704
Powder metallurgy materials, excluding bearings, gears, and machine cutting tools and all cemented carbide parts
3321170401
Aluminum and aluminum_base alloy powder metallurgy parts
3321170416
Nickel_cobalt_base super alloy powder metallurgy parts
3321170426
Other powder metallurgy materials, excluding bearings, gears, and machine cutting tools and all cemented carbide parts
332117M
Miscellaneous receipts
332117P
Primary products
332117S
Secondary products
332117SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
3322
Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing
33221
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing nonprecious and precious plated metal cutlery and flatware; (2) manufacturing nonpowered hand and edge tools; (3) manufacturing nonpowered handsaws; (4) manufacturing saw blades, all types (including those for sawing machines); and (5) manufacturing metal kitchen utensils (except cutting-type) and pots and pans (except those manufactured by casting (e.g., cast iron skillets) or stamped without further fabrication).
332211
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing nonprecious and precious plated metal cutlery and flatware.
3322111
Cutlery, scissors, shears, trimmers, and snips
33221111
Table cutlery (knives, forks, spoons, etc.) for food serving and eating, with handles of materials other than metal
3322111101
Table cutlery (knives, forks, spoons, etc.) for food serving and eating, with handles of materials other than metal
3322111103
Flatware made of base metal clad with nonprecious metal (including partly finished flatware)
3322111106
Base metal hollowware clad with nonprecious metal
33221111A
Cutlery
33221111B
Scissors and shears
33221111C
Other knives (Incl. pocket, pen, and replacement blade knives)
33221112
Cutlery
3322111211
Kitchen cutlery (including knives, forks, cleavers, butchers, and meat packing cutlery), excluding carving sets
3322111222
Other cutlery (including knife blades sold separately)
33221113
Scissors and shears
3322111326
Household scissors and barber shears, pinking shears, and tailoring shears
3322111331
Manicure and pedicure scissors and implements (including tweezers)
3322111336
Metal cutting shears (including aviation and tinners’ snips, BX and wire filament cutters)
3322111344
All other scissors and shears (including hedge and grass shears and pruners)
33221114
Other knives (including pocket, pen, and replacement blade knives)
3322111455
Other knives (including pocket, pen, and replacement blade knives)
3322112
Razors and razor blades, except electric
33221121
Flatware and cultery
3322112101
Table cutlery (knives, forks, spoons etc.) for food serving and eating, with handles of materials other than metal
3322112102
Electrosilverplated flatware and cutlery, electrosilverplated to a nonprecious (except pewter) metal base, including all knives, forks, spoons, and carving sets made wholly of metal
3322112103
Flatware made of base metal clad with nonprecious metal
3322112104
Flatware and cutlery, precious and nonprecious metal plated to a nonprecious (except pewter) metal base, excluding electrosilverplated, including whole metal utensils and carving sets
3322
1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11
1.1 Overview and Definitions 11
1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11
1.2.1 Overview 11
1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12
1.2.3 The Methodology 12
1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14
1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 109
1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 109
1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 109
1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 110
1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 110
2 USING THE DATA 111
3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 112
3.1 Top 15 Markets 112
3.2 Markets 16 to 30 113
3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 114
4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 217
4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 217
4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 224
4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 232
4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 240
4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 244
4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 246
4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 249
4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 253
4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 257
4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 260
4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 262
4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 270
4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 275
4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 285
4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 290
4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 292
4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 293
4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 299
4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 300
4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 303
4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 315
4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 322
4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 324
4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 327
4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xian 328
4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 329
4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 330
5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 331
5.1 Afghanistan 331
5.2 Albania 331
5.3 Algeria 332
5.4 American Samoa 332
5.5 Andorra 332
5.6 Angola 333
5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 333
5.8 Argentina 334
5.9 Armenia 335
5.10 Aruba 335
5.11 Australia 336
5.12 Austria 336
5.13 Azerbaijan 337
5.14 Bahrain 337
5.15 Bangladesh 337
5.16 Barbados 338
5.17 Belarus 338
5.18 Belgium 338
5.19 Belize 339
5.20 Benin 339
5.21 Bermuda 339
5.22 Bhutan 340
5.23 Bolivia 340
5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 340
5.25 Botswana 341
5.26 Brazil 342
5.27 Brunei 347
5.28 Bulgaria 347
5.29 Burkina Faso 348
5.30 Burma 348
5.31 Burundi 348
5.32 Cambodia 349
5.33 Cameroon 349
5.34 Canada 349
5.35 Cape Verde 350
5.36 Central African Republic 350
5.37 Chad 350
5.38 Chile 351
5.39 China 351
5.40 Christmas Island 352
5.41 Colombia 352
5.42 Comoros 352
5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 353
5.44 Cook Islands 353
5.45 Costa Rica 353
5.46 Cote dIvoire 354
5.47 Croatia 354
5.48 Cuba 354
5.49 Cyprus 355
5.50 Czech Republic 355
5.51 Denmark 355
5.52 Djibouti 356
5.53 Dominica 356
5.54 Dominican Republic 356
5.55 Ecuador 357
5.56 Egypt 357
5.57 El Salvador 357
5.58 Equatorial Guinea 358
5.59 Estonia 358
5.60 Ethiopia 358
5.61 Fiji 359
5.62 Finland 359
5.63 France 360
5.64 French Guiana 360
5.65 French Polynesia 361
5.66 Gabon 361
5.67 Georgia 361
5.68 Germany 362
5.69 Ghana 362
5.70 Greece 363
5.71 Greenland 363
5.72 Grenada 363
5.73 Guadeloupe 364
5.74 Guam 364
5.75 Guatemala 364
5.76 Guinea 365
5.77 Guinea-Bissau 365
5.78 Guyana 365
5.79 Haiti 366
5.80 Honduras 366
5.81 Hong Kong 366
5.82 Hungary 367
5.83 Iceland 367
5.84 India 368
5.85 Indonesia 369
5.86 Iran 370
5.87 Iraq 370
5.88 Ireland 371
5.89 Israel 371
5.90 Italy 372
5.91 Jamaica 372
5.92 Japan 373
5.93 Jordan 375
5.94 Kazakhstan 376
5.95 Kenya 376
5.96 Kiribati 377
5.97 Kuwait 377
5.98 Kyrgyzstan 377
5.99 Laos 377
5.100 Latvia 378
5.101 Lebanon 378
5.102 Lesotho 378
5.103 Liberia 379
5.104 Libya 379
5.105 Liechtenstein 379
5.106 Lithuania 380
5.107 Luxembourg 380
5.108 Macau 380
5.109 Madagascar 381
5.110 Malawi 381
5.111 Malaysia 382
5.112 Maldives 382
5.113 Mali 383
5.114 Malta 383
5.115 Marshall Islands 383
5.116 Martinique 384
5.117 Mauritania 384
5.118 Mauritius 384
5.119 Mexico 385
5.120 Micronesia Federation 386
5.121 Moldova 386
5.122 Monaco 386
5.123 Mongolia 386
5.124 Morocco 387
5.125 Mozambique 387
5.126 Namibia 387
5.127 Nauru 388
5.128 Nepal 388
5.129 New Caledonia 388
5.130 New Zealand 389
5.131 Nicaragua 389
5.132 Niger 390
5.133 Nigeria 390
5.134 Niue 390
5.135 Norfolk Island 391
5.136 North Korea 391
5.137 Norway 391
5.138 Oman 392
5.139 Pakistan 392
5.140 Palau 392
5.141 Palestine 392
5.142 Panama 393
5.143 Papua New Guinea 393
5.144 Paraguay 393
5.145 Peru 394
5.146 Philippines 394
5.147 Poland 395
5.148 Portugal 395
5.149 Puerto Rico 396
5.150 Qatar 396
5.151 Republic of Congo 396
5.152 Reunion 397
5.153 Romania 397
5.154 Russia 398
5.155 Rwanda 398
5.156 San Marino 398
5.157 Sao Tome E Principe 399
5.158 Saudi Arabia 399
5.159 Senegal 399
5.160 Seychelles 400
5.161 Sierra Leone 400
5.162 Singapore 400
5.163 Slovakia 400
5.164 Slovenia 401
5.165 Solomon Islands 401
5.166 Somalia 401
5.167 South Africa 402
5.168 South Korea 402
5.169 Spain 403
5.170 Sri Lanka 403
5.171 St. Kitts and Nevis 404
5.172 St. Lucia 404
5.173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 404
5.174 Sudan 404
5.175 Suriname 405
5.176 Swaziland 405
5.177 Sweden 405
5.178 Switzerland 406
5.179 Syrian Arab Republic 406
5.180 Taiwan 407
5.181 Tajikistan 408
5.182 Tanzania 408
5.183 Thailand 408
5.184 The Bahamas 409
5.185 The British Virgin Islands 409
5.186 The Cayman Islands 409
5.187 The Falkland Islands 409
5.188 The Gambia 410
5.189 The Netherlands 410
5.190 The Netherlands Antilles 410
5.191 The Northern Mariana Island 411
5.192 The U.S. Virgin Islands 411
5.193 The United Arab Emirates 411
5.194 The United Kingdom 412
5.195 The United States 413
5.196 Togo 414
5.197 Tokelau 414
5.198 Tonga 414
5.199 Trinidad and Tobago 415
5.200 Tunisia 415
5.201 Turkey 416
5.202 Turkmenistan 416
5.203 Tuvalu 416
5.204 Uganda 417
5.205 Ukraine 417
5.206 Uruguay 418
5.207 Uzbekistan 418
5.208 Vanuatu 418
5.209 Venezuela 419
5.210 Vietnam 419
5.211 Wallis and Futuna 420
5.212 Western Sahara 420
5.213 Western Samoa 420
5.214 Yemen 420
5.215 Zambia 421
5.216 Zimbabwe 421
6 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 422
6.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 422
6.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 423
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