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Peak Oil in Latin America - Present and Future Perspectives for the Oil & Gas Markets
Frost & Sullivan, March 2009, Pages: 104
This study focuses on Upstream and Downstream activities, and how could they be impacted for energy policies in the different Latin American countries, derived by fears of availability of fossil fuels, under a high oil prices scenario, that bring up an old theory about the midpoint of global hydrocarbon production, the “Peak Oil” theory, also called 'Hubbert's Peak'.
Research Overview
This Frost & Sullivan research service titled Peak Oil in Latin America: Present and Future Perspectives for the Oil and Gas Market provides the forecasts for oil prices up to 2014, PESTLE Analysis for the Latin American oil and gas markets. In this research, Frost & Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the following markets: upstream and downstream segments. The research service focuses on upstream and downstream activities, and how investments in these segments are affected for energy policies in various Latin American countries that are dependant on oil prices.
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Market Overview
High Oil Prices Set-off Greater Investments by Latin American Countries in Oil Exploration and Renewable Energy
Since 2003 high oil prices have been observed (reaching above USD$ 100 during 2008), which presented us with market dynamics similar to a peak oil scenario, due to high extraction costs, increasing exploitation in deep sea reservoirs, heavy oil treatment, low refinery capacity, among others. Such a situation impelled the Latin American countries to step-up investments not only in exploration and production (E&P) activities but also in renewable energy, in order to diversify their energy matrixes. Due to energy-efficiency trends, environmental regulation and energy matrixes reconfiguration, new technologies such as gasification (application IGCC), gas to liquid (GTL) or lignocellulosic ethanol will experience high demand in Latin America in the years to come. A significant amount of investments is likely in upstream and downstream segments, such as deepwater E&P, floating production storage and off-loading (FPSO) platforms, liquefaction and regasification terminals, and refineries reconfiguration to treat more and extra-heavy crude oil.
“Currently, in 2009, after taking into consideration the oil sands count, extra heavy crude oil, and deep water reservoirs, more than 50 percent of the conventionally proven reserves in the world have been deployed”, says the analyst of this research. “Production costs are spiraling because oil and gas fields are becoming increasingly deeper.” The Latin American countries are seeking to diversify energy matrixes with a majority having biofuel policies. For instance, wind farm construction is underway in Chile, Argentina, and Mexico even as other renewable fuels, such as biogas, are under development in countries with large coal reserves, such as Columbia. Innovative technologies are being developed to capitalize on the coal mine-associated methane that is produced. Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) intends to invest approximately $125.00 billion in 2013 in various projects, under the ‘oil sowing plan’, which includes six development projects. One of them includes treating or upgrading extra-heavy crude projects in the Orinoco basin.
Oil producing countries should invest in exploration to replenish reserves. This will involve significant investments in new technologies, such as magneto telluric, aerial and terrestrial magnetometry, radiometry, teledection, 2D and 3D sesimic, and gravimetrics. “It is vital to invest and sign agreements to capitalize on deepwater E&P technology to drill in ‘ultra-deep’ and ‘pre-salt’ oil fields,” explains the analyst. Furthermore, Mexico should discover the petrobras technologies used in Campos and Santos basins in the Gulf of Mexico. In Mexico, 29 of the 36 main oil wells are declining and 92 percent of oil production is supported by mature oil fields. “In countries such as Brazil or Venezuela, large investments in innovative technologies are expected to make the most of pre-salt discoveries and heavy oil upgrading, such as the Venezuelan ‘swata sweet’ made of extra-heavy oil from the Orinoco Basin,” concludes the analyst.
Market Sectors
Expert Frost & Sullivan analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors in this research:
- Oil proved reserves and R/P ratios
- Oil production and consumption
- Refinery capacities
- NG proved reserves and R/P ratios
- NG production and consumption
- Main players in upstream activities
- Main players in downstream activities
- Technological and regulatory challenges
- Technologies
The following technologies are covered in this research:
- Gasification (application IGCC)
- Gas to liquid (GTL)
- Lignocellulosic ethanol
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