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Analytical Approach to Investing Research - Removing the Management Fluff
TotalRecall Publications, Inc., March 2009, Pages: 124
A Market Insider’s Analytical Approach - “Removes Management Fluff” to Help Predict Forward Pricing and Valuation
Based on Solid Principles That Can Be Quantified
The earnings management and expectations management directly impacts the analytical forecasts in firm evaluation. Earnings and analyst forecasts are important inputs into accounting valuation models to reflect current and predict future firm performance. These models help predict the intrinsic value, however in recent years may have adversely affected the usefulness of the information. This book is meant to show that intrinsic value metrics estimated using manipulated earnings or forecasts have less ability to track stock prices and predict future returns. The usefulness of earnings and analyst forecasts provide evidence for the joint hypothesis of:
(i) long-term market efficiency and
(ii) the negative impact of “earnings management” and “expectations management” i.e.
Removing The Management Fluff
First, it challenges the conventional view that more accurate and less biased forecasts are necessarily of better quality and proposes to assess the quality of analyst forecasts. It also introduces an improved measure for expectations management and presents new evidence on
(i) the usefulness of earnings and analyst forecasts in firm valuation;
(ii) the negative impacts of earnings management and expectations management on this usefulness; and
(iii) the overall performance of accounting valuation models in firm valuation.
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