|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Germany Food and Drink Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, June 2009, Pages: 73
The Germany Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's food and drink industry.
The German economy is expected to contract by 4.6% in 2009, which will be the worst full-year outturn for the country post-unification. Even though the consumer sector has seen negative real growth for the past two years, 2009 is likely to be a particularly poor year for household spending. We are forecasting a real 2.2% downturn in consumption. Indeed, there are signs that the figures for Q109 in particular, and H109 in general, could be horrific.
Our forecast has been backed up by official data such as the Federal Statistics Office of Germany report that retail sales in the country decreased by 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in February 2009 and dropped by 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) when compared with February 2008. The defensive nature of the food and drink sector is expected to give it some protection from the downturn. However, it is not expected to escape completely unscathed from the massive contraction in economic activity, with total food and drink consumption expected to stagnate in nominal terms in 2009 and 2010 (representing a contraction in real terms). This period of stagnation has impacted our five-year forecasts, predicting a 10% increase in total German food consumption (food and drink, excluding alcoholic drinks) over the next five years to 2013.
During 2006 and 2007, when the German economy was thriving and German consumers were beginning to gain in confidence, sales at German supermarkets increased quickly while sales at German discount stores began to stagnate. This led some commentators, including management consultants Accenture and market research firm GfK, to claim that discounters were at a crossroads and must adapt or face an uncertain future. However, the recent financial turbulence and a slowdown in economic growth have once again sent consumer confidence plummeting, pushing German consumers back into the arms of the discounters.
Nevertheless, the strong performance of German supermarkets in 2006 and 2007 – which came after more than a decade of stagnant sales and declining market share – seems to have offered a ray of hope to beleaguered supermarket operators and convinced Edeka and Rewe that the discount format will not remain in ascendance in perpetuity. Edeka, which is Germany’s largest grocery retailer by sales, has announced plans to open around 200 supermarkets and 150 discount stores a year, while Rewe has revealed that it will be expanding both its Penny discount network and its Rewe supermarket format. This dual focus on both full-service supermarkets and discount stores reflects the current market conditions, with the discount format likely to provide the best returns in the short term while consumer confidence is low, but with the supermarket format likely to bounce back once the economic climate improves.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Germany Food and Drink Report Q3 2011
Germany Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Germany Food and Drink Report Q1 2011
Germany Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Germany Food and Drink Report Q2 2012
Germany Food and Drink Report Q1 2009
Germany Food and Drink Report Q2 2009
Germany Food and Drink Report Q4 2009
Germany Food and Drink Report Q3 2007
Germany Food and Drink Report Q3 2008
|
|
|
|
