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2Q09 Belgium Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Belgium to reach 13.79 million with Mobistar losing market share to Proximus and Base over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Belgium provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Belgium’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Belgium include: Proximus, Mobistar, and Base. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Belgium's wireless market
+6.4% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU growth is improving but still in negative territory
-8.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber in Belgium decreased
-3.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Positive EBITDA growth for all of the operators
+6.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is the Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Belgium to reach 13.7 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Belgium will increase from 10.99 million in 2008 to 13.69 million in 2013.
- Proximus will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Belgium over the next five years; we expect that Proximus's subscriber base will increase from 4.92 million in 2008 to 6.25 million in 2013.
- Mobilstar will be the second largest mobile operator with 3.73 million subscriber accounts in 2013. Base will be the third with 3.72 million in 2013, according to our model.
Mobistar will lose market share to Base and Proximus over the next five years
- We expect that Proximus will see its subscriber market share increase from 44.7% to 45.6% while Base's subscriber market share increases from 24.4% to 27.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- In contrast, our model predicts that Mobistar's share will decrease from 30.9% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2013.
ARPUs in Belgium will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
- We expect that all three operators will see their monthly ARPU levels decrease over the next five years.
- Mobistar's ARPU level will remain the highest in the country, but we forecast that it will still decline from €31.65 in 2008 to €26.93 in 2013.
- In comparison, we expect that monthly ARPUs at Proximus and Base will decrease to €23.86 and €13.33 respectively in 2013.
EBITDA margins to decrease slightly over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 41.7% in 2008 to 42.9% in 2013.
- The largest operator, Proximus, will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability with an EBITDA margin changing from 43.3% in 2008 to 46.2% in 2013.
- Mobistar's EBITDA margin will improve slightly from 41.6% to 41.9% while that of Base increases from 37.1% to 37.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
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