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2Q09 Czech Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Czech to reach 14.3 million in 2013 with T-Mobile's profitability improving over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Czech Republic provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Czech Republic’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Czech Republic include: Telefonica O2 CZ, T-Mobile, and Vodafone. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Czech Republic
+3.9% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU growth rate decreasing
-1.9% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing but at decreasing rate
+6.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Operators maintain positive EBITDA growth
Industry average EBITDA growth rate was +12.8% in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Czech to reach 14.3 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Czech Republic will increase from 13.6 million in 2008 to 14.3 million in 2013.
- We expect that all of the operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- Telefonica O2 CZ and T-Mobile to remain neck and neck at the top while Vodafone is a distant third.
- Our model predicts that the numbers of subscriber accounts at Telefonica O2 CZ, T-Mobile, and Vodafone will reach 5.56 million, 5.69 million, and 3.01 million respectively in 2013.
T-Mobile will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Czech Republic
- T-Mobile will continue to lead the Czech Republic in market shares. We forecast that T-Mobile's subscriber market share will remain constant over the next several years at approximately 39.9%.
- On the other hand, we expect that Telefonica's subscriber market share will increase slightly from 38.7% to 39.0% while that of Vodafone declines from 21.3% to 21.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
The industry average ARPU level will decrease slightly over the next five years
- Our model predicts that the industry average ARPU will decrease from CZK 525.82 in 2008 to CZK 523.79 in 2013.
- However, we expect that T-Mobile's ARPU level will increase from CZK 500.00 in 2008 to CZK 510.64 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will be stable from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 45.2% - 46.0% over the next several years.
- At the operator level, we expect that profitability at T-Mobile will improving in the coming years. Our model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will increase from 49.6% in 2008 to 56.1% in 2013.
- In contrast, we forecast that Telefonica's EBITDA margin will deteriorate from 44.4% in 2008 to 39.6% in 2013.
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