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2Q09 Sweden Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Sweden to reach 13.6 million in 2013 with 3 (Hutchison) taking market share from Telia and Tele 2 over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Sweden provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Sweden’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Sweden include: Telia, Tele 2, Telenor, and 3 (Hutchison). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Wireless subscriber growth increased in Sweden's mobile operator space
+10.1% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU levels are decreasing in Sweden
-3.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth remains positive
+7.3% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Positive EBITDA growth for Telia, Tele 2, and Telenor
+3.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 13.6 million in 2013
- We forecast that total subscribers in Sweden will increase from 11.4 million in 2008 to 13.6 million in 2013.
- All operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- Telia will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 6.23 million subscribers in 2013.
- Tele 2 will remain in second place with its 3.58 million subscribers while Telenor with 2.3 million will remain in third place in 2013. The fourth operator, 3 (Hutchison) will continue to grow rapidly, with an expected subscriber base of 1.53 million accounts in 2013.
Telia and Tele 2 will be losing their subscriber market shares to 3 (Hutchison) over the next five years
- According to our forecasting model, Telia will see its subscriber market share decrease from 46.6% in 2008 to 45.7% in 2013. Also, Tele 2's share will decline from 29.3% in 2008 to 26.3% in 2013.
- In contrast, we expect that 3 (Hutchison) will see its market share increase from 7.4% in 2008 to 11.2% in 2013.
- We forecast that Telenor's market share will remain stable at around 16.6% over the next several years.
ARPU levels in Sweden will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the three major wireless operators - Telia, Tele 2, and Telenor - will all see their ARPUs decline over the next several years.
- According to our model, Telia's monthly ARPU will fall from SEK 189.50 to SEK 164.18, Tele 2's ARPU will fall from SEK 197.29 to SEK 192.72, and Telenor's ARPU will fall from SEK 273.45 to SEK 211.58 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
EBITDA margins will deteriorate across operators over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 32.2% in 2008 to 25.6% in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Telia's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.1% to 29.4%, and Tele 2's EBITDA margin will fall from 34.1% to 25.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Telenor will continue to have lower EBITDA margins than its competitors; we expect that Telenor's EBITDA margin will decrease from 21.1% in 2008 to 18.3% in 2013..
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