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2Q09 Norway Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total subscribers in Norway to reach 6.02 million with Telenor taking 53.0% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Norway provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Norway’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Norway include: Telenor and Netcom. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth is increasing in Norway's operator space
+3.4% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU growth is improving but still in negative territory in Norway
-1.6% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing slightly
+1.7% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Norwegian mobile operators seeing their EBITDA growth increase
+12.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Norway to reach 6.02 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Norway will increase from 5.45 million in 2008 to 6.02 million in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Telenor's subscriber base will increase from 3.02 million accounts in 2008 to 3.19 million accounts in 2013.
Telenor will be losing its subscriber market share to its competitors over the next five years
- Telenor will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Norway, but we forecast that Telenor's subscriber market share will decline from 55.4% in 2008 to 53.0% in 2013.
- The rest of the market will be taken by other operators such as Netcom. Their combined market share will increase from 44.6% in 2008 to 47.0% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Norway will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decrease from NKR 323.52 to NKR 290.53 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- We forecast that Telenor will see its monthly ARPU decrease from NKR 317.50 in 2008 to NKR 297.53 in 2013.
Telenor's profitability to deteriorate over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline slightly from 35.5% in 2008 to 35.0% in 2013.
- At the operator level, we expect that Telenor's EBITDA margin will decline from 35.6% in 2008 to 33.6% in 2013.
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