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2Q09 Denmark Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total subscribers in Denmark to reach 8.52 million in 2013 with TDC Mobile and Telenor losing market shares to Telia and 3 (Hutchison) over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Denmark provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Denmark’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Denmark include: TDC Mobile, Telenor (Sonofon), Telia, and 3 (Hutchison). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth remains strong in Denmark's wireless market
+7.5% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU levels are stabilizing in Denmark
-1.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increasing
+2.2% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Operators seeing their EBITDA growth increase
+20.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Denmark to reach 8.52 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Denmark will increase from 6.85 million in 2008 to 8.52 million in 2013.
- All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- We expect that the largest mobile operator, TDC Mobile, will see its subscriber base increase from 3.16 million in 2008 to 3.80 million in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Telenor will remain in the second place with 2.16 million subscriber accounts in 2013. Also, we expect that Telia will have 1.98 subscribers and 3 (Hutchison) will have 0.57 million subscribers in 2013.
TDC Mobile and Telenor to lose market shares to Telia and 3 (Hutchison) over the next five years
- Although TDC Mobile will continue to be the largest operator in the country, we expect that its subscriber market share will decline from 46.2% in 2008 to 44.6% in 2013.
- We also forecast that Telenor will see its subscriber market share fall from 26.5% in 2008 to 25.4% in 2013.
- On the other hand, our model predicts that Telia's market share will increase from 21.8% to 23.2% while that of 3 (Hutchison) increases from 5.6% to 6.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPUs in Denmark will stabilize over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average ARPU in Denmark will change from DKK 203.51 in 2008 to DKK 200.25 in 2013.
- According to our forecasting model, TDC Mobile's ARPU will be declining from DKK 180.00 to DKK 169.87 and Telenor's ARPU will be declining from DKK 202.10 to DKK 195.87 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- In contrast, we expect Telia's ARPU to rise to DKK 286.83 in 2013.
EBITDA margins at Telenor and Telia will be improving from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 23.2% in 2008 to 25.8% in 2013.
- We expect that Telenor's EBITDA margin will increase from 23.2% to 25.5% and Telia's EBITDA margin will increase from 20.0% to 28.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, we think that TDC Mobile's EBITDA margin will deteriorate slightly from 25.3% in 2008 to 24.3% in 2013.
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