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2Q09 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to reach 90.9 million in 2013 with Turkcell losing market share to Vodafone Turkey and Avea over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Turkey’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea (Turk Telekom). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth in Turkey has slowed down in the last four quarters
+7.9% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPUs are declining in Turkey's mobile operator space
-5.7% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase at Turkcell and Vodafone
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +23.3% in 4Q.2008
EBITDA growth rate is decreasing in Turkey's mobile operator space
-13.8% industry-average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to reach 90.88 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Turkey will increase from 66.4 million in 2008 to 90.88 million in 2013.
- All of the three major operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- Turkcell will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 42.31 million subscribers in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Vodafone will have 26.27 million and Avea (Turk Telekom) will have 22.30 million wireless subscriber accounts in 2013.
Turkcell will be losing market share to Vodafone Turkey and Avea over the next five years
- Our forecasting model predicts that Turkcell's subscriber market share will decline from 55.7% in 2008 to 46.6% in 2013.
- Instead, we expect that Vodafone's market share will increase from 25.2% to 28.9% while Avea's share increases from 19.1% to 24.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Turkey to increase slightly from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will change from TRY 16.72 to TRY 17.47 over the forecast period, 2008 -2013.
- At the operator-level, we forecast that Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country of TRY 14.93 per month in 2013 (up from TRY 13.65 in 2008).
- Turkcell's monthly ARPU will increase from TRY 18.60 in 2008 to TRY 19.79 in 2013 and Avea's monthly ARPU will increase from TRY 15.3 in 2008 to TRY 17.59 in 2013, according to our model.
Profitability at Turkey's mobile operators will increase over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase over the next several years from 28.3% in 2008 to 31.1% in 2013.
- We expect that Turkcell's EBITDA margin will rise from 39.1% to 40.9% while Avea's EBITDA margin increases from 21.1% to 34.3% over the forecast period, 2008-2013.
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