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Internet Interrupted - Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture The Net & The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity will Stifle Innovation on the Web
Nemertes Research, Nov 2008, Pages: 140
'Internet Interrupted - Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture The 'Net'' & 'The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity will Stifle Innovation on the Web' are sold together in a bundle for the price above.
'Internet Interrupted - Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture The 'Net'' report description includes:
In 2007, we conducted the first-ever study to independently model Internet and IP infrastructure (which we call 'capacity') and current and projected traffic (which we call 'demand') with the goal of evaluating how each changes over time. In that study, we concluded that if current trends were to continue, demand would outstrip capacity before 2012. Specifically, access bandwidth limitations will throttle back innovation, as users become increasingly frustrated with their ability to run sophisticated applications over primitive access infrastructure. This year, we revisit our original study, update the data and our model, and extend the study to look beyond physical bandwidth issues to assess the impact of potential logical constraints. Our conclusion? The situation is worse than originally thought!
We continue to project that capacity in the core, and connectivity and fiber layers will outpace all conceivable demand for the near future. However, demand will exceed access line capacity within the next two to four years. Even factoring in the potential impact of a global economic recession on both demand (users purchasing fewer Internet-attached devices and services) and capacity (providers slowing their investment in infrastructure) changes the impact by as little as a year (either delaying or accelerating, depending on which is assumed to have the greater effect).
'The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity will Stifle Innovation on the Web' description includes:
'In this research study, an independent in-depth analysis of Internet and IP infrastructure (which we call capacity) and current and projected traffic (which we call demand) with the goal of understanding how each has changed over time, and determining if there will ever be a point at which demand exceeds capacity.
To assess infrastructure capacity, we reviewed details of carrier expenditures and vendor revenues, and compared these against market research studies. To compute demand, we took a unique approach: Instead of modeling user behavior based on measuring the application portfolios that users had currently deployed, and projecting deployment of those applications in future, we looked directly at how user consumption of available bandwidth has changed over time. '
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