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Mobile Open Source Operating Systems Markets & Opportunities 2009-2014
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Description: |
This report compares and evaluates the value of the three consortiums: Symbian foundation, LiMo foundation and Open handset alliance (android) analysing the business models for both proprietary and open source.
A six year regional forecasting suite including market share by operating system is provided as well as looking at relative year on year growth for smartphone operating systems. It also examines how the App Store approach has impacted the operating system market and investigates what the future plans are for the development of OS.
Each one of the open source operating systems are fully analysed providing; history, overview, indicative handset vendors, technical details and how the licensing process works. The report also includes a overview for proprietary operating systems.
Key questions
- How has the recent trend towards open source impacted the rest of the value chain? - How will the fortunes of the main players in the operating systems market develop over the next six years? - How will the increasing openness in the operating systems market effect network operators? - Why has the importance of the operating system risen from the invisible to the unavoidable? - Will all the current operating systems survive over the forecast period? - Why did Nokia buy Symbian and give away all of its technology?
Key Benefits:
- A unique source of combined research and analysis for the mobile open source market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts. - Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators. - Unique insights: includes interviews of leading players with significant experience of the mobile open source market. - Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.
The report analyses how money is to be made in a zero cost item and includes a chapter on key OS market drivers, such as finding a route to monetisation for applications, stimulating market growth for all members of the value chain.
This report provides in-depth profiles of the following major players and considers who will derive the most market share over the next six years and in which regions; Symbian, Linux, Windows Mobile, Android, iPhone OS, BlackBerry and Palm as well including one-on-one interviews with RIM, Symbian and Lemo.
Author: Catherine Bethell is an associate analyst with Juniper Research with 20 years experience in electronics & EDA industry focusing on support of digital simulation (Verilog/VHDL) and synthesis tools. She has a Msc in Microelectronics and a Bsc in Physics. |
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Contents: |
Glossary
Executive Summary - Types of Open Source OS Business Model - Types of Proprietary OS - Why Open Source? - The Smartphone Market - Figure ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014 - Table ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014 - Outlook
1. Operating Systems 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Mobile Telecoms Development Figure 1.1: The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X Portable Cellular Phone, 1983 Figure 1.2: The Modu Mini-phone, 2008 1.3 What is an Operating System? Figure 1.3: How Does the OS Fit into a Mobile Phone? 1.4 What is Open Source? i. Open Source vs. Free Software ii. Open Source Initiative iii. The Open Source Definition Table 1.1: The Open Source Definition 1.5 Open Source vs. Proprietary i. Proprietary ii. Open Source i. The Pros & Cons 1.6 The Current Landscape 1.6.1Current Operating Systems 1.6.2 History of the Open Source Mobile OS 1.6.3 Open Source: The Historical View Table 1.2: Timeline of Key Events in the Uptake of Open Source OSs in Mobile Figure 1.4: Smartphone Market Share (%) by Operating System, 2008 i. Prior to June 2008 Table 1.2: Breakdown of OS by Type (Proprietary & Open Source) Prior to June 2008 Figure 1.5: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Prior to June 2008 ii. After June 2008 Figure 1.6: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Following the Announcement of the Symbian Foundation 1.6.4 Open Source: The Way Forward?
2. The Open Source OS 2.1 Introduction Table 2.1: Open Source OS 2.2 LiMo Foundation 2.2.1 Overview and History Table 2.2: LiMo History 2.2.2 LiMo Users Figure 2.1: Panasonic NTT DoCoMo FOMA P905i Figure 2.2: The Purple Labs Purple Magic phone 2.2.3 Funding 2.2.4 Governance Figure 2.3: The LiMo Foundation Governance Model 2.2.5 Technical Details Figure 2.4: RI Platform Scope -The First Release Platform from LiMo i. The Foundation Platform Figure 2.5: LiMo Platform Architecture, January 2009 ii. Portability iii. Test and Certification 2.2.6 Licensing i. Foundation API ii. Middleware iii. Kernel iv. Overall Picture 2.2.7 Roadmap Figure 2.6: R2 Platform Scope Figure 2.7: Roadmap from LiMo Foundation (April 2008) 2.3 OHA 2.3.1 Overview and History Table: 2.3 Timeline of OHA Announcements Relating to Android 2.3.2 Users 2.3.3 Funding 2.3.4 Governance 2.3.5 Technical Aspects Figure 2.8: The Android OS Components 2.3.6 Licensing 2.3.7 Roadmap 2.4 Symbian Foundation 2.4.1 Overview and History i. Proprietary Symbian OS ii. Symbian Foundation 2.4.2 Symbian Users 2.4.3 Funding 2.4.4 Governance Figure 2.9: Symbian Foundation Governance 2.4.5 Technical Details Figure 2.10: Symbian Foundation Assets to be Unified to Create One Platform i. Core OS ii. User Interface Elements Figure 2.11: Overview of Symbian Foundation Platform iii. Developer Support 2.4.6 Licensing of Foundations Assets 2.4.7 Roadmap 2.5 Others 2.5.1 Maemo 2.5.2 OpenMoko
3. Proprietary Solutions 3.1 Introduction 3.2 iPhone OS 3.2.1 Overview and History 3.2.2 Users & Licensing Policy 3.2.3 Business Model 3.2.4 Technical Details i. iPhone SDK 3.2.5 Roadmap 3.3 RIM (BlackBerry) OS 3.3.1 Overview and History 3.3.2 Users & Licensing Policy Figure 3.2: Integration of Brands with BlackBerry 3.3.3 Business Model 3.3.4 Technical Details Figure 3.3: BlackBerry Solution Architecture i. Application Developers 3.3.6 Roadmap 3.4 Windows Mobile 3.4.1 Overview and History 3.4.2 Users & Licensing 3.4.3 Business Model 3.4.4 Technical Details 3.4.5 Roadmap 3.5 Palm OS Family 3.5.1 Overview and History 3.5.2 Users & Licensing 3.5.3 Business Model 3.5.4 Technical Details 3.5.5 Roadmap
4. Business Models 4.1 Value of the Proprietary OS i. The Types of Business Model 4.1.1 Apple: iPhone OS i. The App Store ii. The Apple Philosophy 4.1.2 RIM: BlackBerry OS i. Partnership ii. BlackBerry Application Storefront iii. The “Virtual” BlackBerry 4.1.3 ACCESS: Garnet OS 4.1.4 Microsoft: Windows Mobile 4.2 Value of an Open Source OS 4.2.1 The Value Proposition for Open Source i. Reduced Development Overhead ii. Independence iii. Differentiation iv. Time to Market v. Bug Fixes vi. Innovation vii. Prevention of Fragmentation viii. Service-based Revenue Opportunities 4.3 Value Proposition in Mobile OS 4.3.1 LiMo Foundation i. Members ii. Third Party Application Developers 4.3.2 Google & OHA i. Members ii. Third Party Developers 4.3.3 Symbian Foundation i. Members ii. Third Party Developers 4.3.4 The Relative Value i. Membership Fees Figure 4.1: Direct Membership Costs for Each Group ($000) ii. Reduction in Licence Royalty Costs iii. Licence iv. Governance v. Quality, Direction and Code Management vi. Market Value vii. Professional Development Value viii. Overall Value Figure 4.2: Raw Relative Value Analysis a. Licence Table 4.1: Relative Value of Openness of Licence b. Governance Table 4.2: Relative Value of Governance c. Quality/Code Management Table 4.3: Relative Value of Code Management d. Openness & Collaboration Table 4.4: Relative Value of Openness and Collaboration e. Market Value Table 4.5: Relative Value of Market f. Overall Value Analysis Figure 4.3: Adjusted Relative Value Analysis Based on Market Share (2009) 4.3.5 Value of Each Solution i. Direct Membership Costs Figure 4.4: Value for Money of Membership Table 4.6: The Relative Value for Money of Membership
5. Forecasts 5.1 Mobile Handset Shipments Figure 5.1: Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.1: Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.2: Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 5.1.2 Smartphones as a Proportion of the Mobile Handset Market Table 5.2: Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 5.2 Market Share by Operating System 5.2.1 Symbian Table 5.4: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.4: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.6: Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS 2008-2014 5.2.2 LiMo Table 5.7: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.9: Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo OS 2008-2014 5.2.3 Android Table 5.10: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.6: Smartphones Shipments (m) With Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2
Table 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.12: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS 2008-2014 5.2.4 RIM Table 5.13: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM’s Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.7: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008- 2014 Table 5.14: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.15: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using RIM’s Proprietary OS 2008-2014 5.2.5 iPhone OS Table 5.16: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.17: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.18: Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS 2008-2014 5.2.6 Windows Mobile Table 7.19: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets Using Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.9: Smartphones Shipments (m) Which use Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.20: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft’s Proprietary Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.21: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014 Table 5.22: License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014 Table 5.23: Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 5.2.7 Palm OS Garnet Table 5.24: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS Garnet Split by Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.25: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions 2008- 2014 Figure 5.10: Smartphones Shipments (m) with Palm OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 5.2.8 Others Table 5.26: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Figure 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) with Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 Table 5.27: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 5.2.9 Total Market Share Figure 5.12: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014 Table 5.28: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014 5.3 Market Share by OS Type Table 5.29: Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open Source and Closed Source OS 2008-2014 Table 5.30: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split by Open Source, Closed Source & Others 2008-2014
6. Who Uses What? 6.1 Membership of Projects 6.1.1 LiMo Foundation Table 6.1: LiMo Foundation Membership – Founder Members Table 6.2: LiMo Foundation Membership – Core Members Table 6.3: LiMo Foundation Membership – Associate Members 6.1.2 Open Handset Alliance Table 6.4: OHA Membership – Founder Members (January 2009) Table 6.5: Additional Members of OHA (January 2009) 6.1.3 Symbian Foundation Table 6.6: Symbian Foundation Membership – Founder Members (January 2009) Table 6.7: Symbian Foundation Membership – Endorsing Members (January 2009) Table 6.7 (cont) 6.2 Overlap 6.2.1 Device Manufacturers Table 6.8: Device Manufacturer Membership Status, Q1 2009 6.2.2 Semiconductors Table 6.9: Semiconductor Vendor Membership Status, Q1 2009 6.2.3 Network Operators Table 6.10: Network Operator Membership Status 6.2.4 Software and Services Companies
7. Market Drivers 7.1 World Economics 6.1.1 Current Economic Situation Table 7.1: Annual % Change in Real GDP for 2009 Forecasted for Far East and Asia Pacific i. Asia a. China b. Japan c. Singapore d. South Korea e. Taiwan ii. Western Europe a. The EuroZone b. UK iii. Eastern Europe a. Russia iv. North America a. United States b. Canada v. South America & Caribbean a. Africa & Middle East b. Middle East c. Israel vii. Indian Sub Continent vii. Rest of Asia Pacific a. Australia, New Zealand 7.1.2 Future Predictions i. Prospects for the Overall Mobile Market a. Innovation b. Investment in New Technology c. Market Growth 7.2 The Impact on Operating Systems 7.2.1 Proprietary i. Microsoft – Windows Mobile OS a. Commoditisation b. High Spread/Low Penetration of Market c. Perception d. Outcomes ii. Apple iPhone OS a. Cost of OS b. History of Innovation c. Target Market d. Outcomes iii. RIM a. Target Market b. Cost of OS c. Market Differentiation d. Outcomes 7.2.2 Open Source i. LiMo ii. Android iii. Symbian 7.2.3 Overall Market
Appendix - Interviews - LiMo Foundation - Symbian/Symbian Foundation - Funambol - Aricent - ARM - RIM - DeviceAnywhere - VMware - Foehn - Dexterra
List of Figures:
All forecasts are for 2009-2014, and include an historical estimate for 2008.
Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, Western Europe,
Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.
Mobile Handset Shipments - Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions - Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions - Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions - Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions - Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
Market Share by Operating System - Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open Source and Closed Source OS - Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split by Open Source, Closed Source & Others - Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems
Symbian - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS
LiMo - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo OS
Android - Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS
RIM - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM's Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using RIM's Proprietary OS
iPhone OS - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions - Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone OS
Windows Mobile - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets Using Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft's Proprietary Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014 - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Windows Mobile OS - License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS - Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by 8 Key Regions
Palm OS Garnet - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions
Others - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions |
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Companies Mentioned |
- ACCESS
- Acer
- Apache Software Foundation
- Apple
- Aricent
- ARM
- DeviceAnywhere
- Dexterra
- Fujitsu
- Foehn
- Funambol
- Garmin
- Google
- IBM
- LiMo Foundation
- Microsoft
- Mitsubishi
- Motorola
- NEC
- Netscape
- Nokia
- NTT DoCoMo
- OHA(Open Handset Alliance)
- Palm
- Panasonic
- Psion
- Purple Labs
- Red Hat
- RIM
- Samsung
- Sharp
- Siemens
- Sony Ericsson
- Sony
- STMicroelectronic
- Symbian Foundation
- Texas Instruments
- T-Mobile
- VMWare
- Vodafone
- Wind River |
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