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The Survey of Economists: Prospects for European Economic Recovery, 2009 Edition
Primary Research Group, July 2009, Pages: 65
The Survey of Economists: Prospects for European Economic Recovery, presents the results of a survey of more than 100 economists from leading institutions who comment on a wide range of issues affecting Europe's recovery from the worst economic slump since the 1930's. Data is presented in the aggretage and then separately broken out by the political conviction, geographic origin and professional status of the participants.
Coverage includes fiscal policy advice for the major European states, views of the accuracy of EEC Commission economic forecasts, approaches to resolving the Euro-area banking crisis and the long term economic impact of this crisis, wisdom of the European Central Bank's asset purcchasing policies, sources of demand for future growth, likely exchange rate developments and many other issues affecting Europe's economic recovery.
Just a few of the report's findings are that:
- Nearly 66% of survey participants support the ECB's policy of purchasing non-traditional assets while 21.9% thought it misguided and 12.38% thought that it was a good idea but that the ECB had not gone far enough.
- European economists were the least likely to believe that German banks had managed their banks better than the USA, the UK and many continental European countries, indeed only a bit more than 20% of the European economists in the sample thought so, while more than 41% of the American economists queried believed this.
- 18% of the economists in the sample advised some degree of fiscal contraction for Spain while 55% advised some form of expansion. Only 17.65% of conservative economists advised modest fiscal expansion and none advised significant expansion.
- The more left wing the economist, the higher the percentage of economists that said that deflation was the greater danger than inflation. Only about 39% of conservative economists thought deflation the greater danger, while 67.5% of social democratic/left wing economists thought so.
Summary
The Survey of Economists is a series of reports based on surveys of leading economists from major institutions. Just a few of the institutional affiliations of the economists surveyed (who give their personal opinions that are not necessarily espoused by the institutions with which they are affiliated) are: The World Bank, The European Investment Bank, Ecole Polytechnique, the International Monetary Fund, Oxford University, Harvard University, the Paris School of Economics, the University of Minnesota, Carnegie Mellon University, New York University, the Rand Corporation, the University of Zurich, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Bocconi University, the University of Barcelona, Kyoto University, Rutgers University, Sapienza the University of Rome, The Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, the Bank of Finland, the University of Bologna, the University of Cambridge, the University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, the University of California Berkeley, Cornell University, Simon Fraser University, Tufts University and many others.
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