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Belarus Food and Drink Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 49
Belarus Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belarus' food and drink industry.
A pronounced decline in domestic and foreign investment, together with a fall in exports as demand for Belarusian goods declines as its main trading partners enter into recession, are among the main factors in this forecast that Belarus’ economy will contract by 6.3% in 2009. Although current market conditions are not investor friendly and risk appetite is at its lowest ebb in years, investors can find some value in a number of the country’s fairly underdeveloped food and drink industries, particularly as the Belarusian government has steadily adopted more pro-market policies. The beer industry has been among the first to attract foreign interest as discussed in the recently published Belarus Food & Drink Report for Q309. In January 2009, the world’s second largest brewer SABMiller announced that it had performed a preliminary survey of the market and was interested in investing in a state-owned brewer. While no significant developments have emerged since, the brewer could make a play for Belarus’ leading brewer Krinitsa. The Belarusian government has refuted multinational advances for the brewer in the past but could be more forthcoming this time around.
Fellow heavyweights Carlsberg and Heineken are already present in Belarus. While Carlsberg made a steady first-move by buying up 30% of Olivaria Brewery, Belarus’ third largest brewer by market share, Heineken acquired a controlling interest in Syabar in 2007. The brewers will note that at just 30 litres, per capita beer consumption in Belarus is markedly lower than most countries with similar consumption levels in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region.
To the dismay of Belarus’ consumers, the government’s more liberal stance has coincided with the global financial meltdown. Alcoholic drinks investors contemplating investment may well hold back over the near term on the back of the forecast that industry wide sales will decline by 19.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009.
Between 2010 and 2013, it is forecasted alcoholic drinks sales will increase by 69.4% to US$457.3mn. Although Belarus’ regulatory environment remains fairly unflattering, tight-controls have meant that the industry has developed at a slower pace than would have otherwise been expected in countries with similar profiles. The beer industry is likely to continue hogging the limelight, particularly as spirits sales have underperformed as disposable incomes have risen in recent years – a trend that is consistent with the wider region.
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