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Poland Food and Drink Report Q3 2009


Description: Poland Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's food and drink industry.

In the Business Environment Ratings for Q309, Poland is placed eighth, having previously been ranked third out of the 14 key markets within Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As with a number of other markets in the region, Poland's attractiveness has suffered from the effects of adverse economic conditions. In fact, a flash estimate provided by the Central Statistical Office shows Polish economic growth slowing to 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q408 from 4.8% the previous quarter. We expect growth to continue slowing through 2009, with the economy likely to dip into recession during H209, although the situation will not be as dire as in the Czech Republic and Hungary.

In the meantime, consumer spending in Poland has already taken a turn for the worse, which will have a major impact on the food and drinks values in the current year. In a blow for the alcoholic drinks industry, the government recently increased its excise duty on alcohol and tobacco products, intent on reviving its flagging tax revenues. Concurrently, mass grocery retail (MGR) sales through supermarkets and hypermarkets are suffering from the rise of private label goods and increased popularity of the discount format.

Domestic producers are also feeling the negative effects of a flagging domestic market as well as import demand by key trading partners, including the US, the UK and Germany. Indeed, a number of Polish companies are already looking to mitigate the consequences of the economic crisis. Among these are Alta Capital Partners, a Baltics-based investment fund, which recently announced its intention to divest a majority share it holds in Polish confectionery producer Mieszko, which has amassed considerable debts. Similarly, Polish brewer Kompania Piwowarska, a subsidiary of multinational SABMiller, announced that it will be slashing 80 jobs in an effort to cope with the slump in the domestic beer market. In order to guard against the possibility of flat volume growth in 2009, the brewer may decide to take a hit on its margins to ease the burden on its consumers. In the meantime, Danish Royal Unibrew sold its loss making Polish brewery Koszalin to Van Pur, as part of the formers restructuring plan that also includes a transfer of Koszalins capacity to its other Polish brewery at Lomza.

On a positive note, the Polish market will receive considerable foreign investment in the course of 2009 despite the crisis, as larger players exploit the weaknesses of smaller operators. For example, Polish food manufacturer Nestlé Polska, a subsidiary of the Swiss based food giant, was in March 2009 exploring possible acquisition targets in Poland as it looks to expand its production capacity although the reason for the acquisition is the reduction of its reliance on expensive imported ingredients. In the near term, a successful expansion campaign would probably allow Nestlé Polska to pass on a portion of the efficiency savings provided by its larger size and greater control over input costs to consumers, which is undoubtedly a key strategic objective as consumer spending takes a turn for the worse in 2009. Around the same time, leading multinational consumer product firm Unilever opened its first food product development centre in Poland, which is also the first such centre within the CEE region.


Contents: Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Poland Food Industry SWOT
Poland Drink Industry SWOT
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Business Environment
CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2009
Poland’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland – Economic Activity

Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Poland Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Poland Confectionery Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Canned Food
Table: Poland Canned Foods Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Poland Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Confectionery
Canned Food
Frozen & Chilled Food
Trade
Agriculture
Meat Processing Industry
Dairy Industry

Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Poland Beverage Sectors - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Poland Beverage Sectors - Soft Drink Sales (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Poland Hot Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Table: Poland – Volume Consumption Of Soft Drinks By Category (mn litres)
Table: Poland – Value Consumption Of Soft Drinks By Category (US$mn)
Hot Drinks

Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Poland Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Poland Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts (%)
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table : Poland – Private-Label Share By Company
Main MGR Players
Table: Poland Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Poland Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Poland Average Annual Value Of Sales Per Outlet By Format (US$mn)

Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Food & Drink
Table: Key Players – Poland's Food & Drink Sector (2008 sales estimates)
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector (2008)
Company Analysis
Food
Nestlé Polska
Agros Nova
Danone Polska
Drink
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC)
Carlsberg Polska
SABMiller
Kofola-Hoop
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Polska
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins)
Tesco Polska

Appendix

Commodity Price Forecasts
Corn
Table: Corn, 2005-2010
Soybean
Table: Soybean, 2005-2010
Rice
Table: Rice, 2005-2010
Wheat
Table: Wheat, 2005-2010
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa, 2005-2010
Coffee
Table: Coffee, 2005-2010
Milk
Table: Milk, 2005-2010
Sugar
Table: Sugar, 2005-2010

Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market & Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting

Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail

Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing


Companies Mentioned - Nestlé Polska - Agros Nova - Danone Polska - Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) - Carlsberg Polska - SABMiller - Kofola-Hoop - Metro Polska - Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) - Tesco Polska


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