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Global Vitamin C Supply Chain and Future Pricing Trends
CNutrInfo, Ltd., July 2009, Pages: 81
The raw vitamin C price has stepped out of 2004-2006 period long-term recession and started to increase since the beginning of 2007. The high-rate price increase trend had lasted to the 4th quarter of 2007. After a small tumbling, the price increase quickened and have lasted through the year 2008. The annual average export prices of Chinese vitamin C raw ingredient have increased from $3.3 (2006) to $4.7 (2007) and $8 (2008), respectively. The annual growth rates of the prices were 42.4% and 70.2%.
Since most of the raw vitamin C consumed around the world is now supplied by China, the increase of Chinese vitamin C raw ingredient price has attracted much attention from the VC raw ingredient manufacturers themselves, downstream finished products formulators, as well as the investors who plan to invest in raw VC segment. All of these parties hope to know the pricing trend of this product. Thus it's necessary to research this section and analyze the pricing trend of this product.
This study shows that the raw VC price increase was driven by hike of manufacturing cost and Chinese manufacturers' monopoly. The manufacturing cost increased from RMB18.5 (2006) to RMB25 (2007) and RMB32 (2008) per kilo, respectively. The growth rates of Chinese raw VC's manufacturing costs were 35.1% and 28%. All the Chinese manufacturers have passed the increase of manufacturing cost to the raw VC end use segments.
It's evidently that the growth rates of VC prices were bigger than that of VC manufacturing cost. Hike of manufacturing cost is a reason for the manufacturers to improve the raw VC prices. But they exaggerated this affect. They obtained much higher profit from raw VC production and marketing through their monopoly in this industrial section.
This is a cyclical price growth in raw VC industry. It has ended with the change of global economic situation. All the driven forces behind raw VC price growth have weakened or disappeared. The VC consumers' purchasing ability has got down. If the economies in the developed world be still in the downturn trend, the demand on Chinese VC from those regions would be impacted. Chinese raw VC output would reduce to 94,500 MTs in 2009, down 6%, due to Chinese manufacturers' worry about the impact of the deepening of economic recession on VC market. But the Chinese raw VC output would keep small-rate increases with the market recovery over the period 2010-2011.
The future market could not sustain a high-rate growth for the raw VC price any more over the period 2009-2011. Meanwhile, the prices would not tumble with big-rate as the Chinese manufacturers have already controlled the global raw VC pricing ability. Flat tumbling and flat increase would dominate the pricing trends over the future three years.
The highlights of this report:
- Chinese manufacturers dominating the vitamin C supply
- Chinese manufacturers controlling the vitamin C pricing
- Historical vitamin C prices fluctuations
- Driven forces behind prices fast-increase
- What would impact the future pricing trends
- Global economic downturn and its impact on vitamin C prices
- Vitamin C prices projection over 2009-2011
- Vitamin C output projection over 2009-2011
- Vitamin C profit analysis (prices, manufacturing costs, gross profit and net profit)
- In-depth analysis of major Chinese VC manufacturers
Countries Covered:
- China
- EU
- UK
- US
- Japan
- and other regions of the world
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