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LTE, a Compelling Answer? - Roadmap and Forecasts up to 2015
Description:
This report provides a complete analysis of the LTE (Long Term Evolution) perspective as the next step towards 4G and real mobile broadband
networks. It presents an in-depth analysis of LTE deployment strategies through the elaboration of an original cost model. This study presents roadmap
scenarios and forecasts up to 2015. It also assesses the impact of LTE take-up on the overall mobile ecosystem.
Key questions
- What is the cost of deploying LTE?
- Which type of operator benefits the most?
- What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
- What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1 operators?
- How could LTE accelerate the development of new popular solutions such as Mobile VoIP, or FMC?
- Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market?
networks. It presents an in-depth analysis of LTE deployment strategies through the elaboration of an original cost model. This study presents roadmap
scenarios and forecasts up to 2015. It also assesses the impact of LTE take-up on the overall mobile ecosystem.
Key questions
- What is the cost of deploying LTE?
- Which type of operator benefits the most?
- What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
- What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1 operators?
- How could LTE accelerate the development of new popular solutions such as Mobile VoIP, or FMC?
- Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market?
Contents:
1. Executive Summary
1.1. The roadmap and forecasts
1.2. Modelling the business cases
1.3. Regulations and technicalities
2. Methodology
2.1. Market assessment and forecasts
2.2. Presentation of LTE deployment model
3. The grand LTE roadmap
3.1. A healthy ecosystem
3.2. Commercial launch scheduled for 2010
3.3. Devices roadmap
3.4. LTE adoption forecasts, by region
4. What is the cost of LTE deployment?
4.1. Scenario of reference: LTE overlay
4.2. Base case results: 2.1 billion EUR over seven years for 50 million population, 75% coverage
5. Which type of operator benefits most?
5.1. LTE: where the integrated operator is winner
5.2. Deployment cost of a greenfield operator
6. LTE: just for urban hotspots, or wider?
6.1. LTE coverage trends
6.2. LTE cost of deployment by population coverage
6.3. Enabling LTE in rural areas: deployment in lower frequency band
7. How to enhance and monetise the service experience: the VoLTE and smart pipe model
7.1. VoIP: LTE set to change operator perceptions
7.2. LTE enhances the mobile experience
7.3. LTE smart pipe: operators leverage their central position
8. Which regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
8.1. The telecom and Internet regulation review
8.2. Restrictions applied to base stations
8.3. Request for more spectrum, less regulation
9. LTE accelerates the consolidation of the mobile market
9.1. Accelerating the trend towards Fixed Mobile Convergence
9.2. LTE strengthens the case for network sharing
9.3. LTE drives partnerships in the mobile sector
10.LTE spectrum: impact on roadmap and costs
10.1. Potential frequency bands: 2G, 3G bands and more
10.2. FDD vs. TDD: paired spectrum still dominant but TDD operations gaining ground24
10.3. Roadmap for awards of LTE spectrum licences
10.4. Cost of LTE frequencies
11.LTE key technological features
11.1. OFDMA and spectrum flexibility
11.2. FDD and TDD convergence
11.3. Evolved Packet Core architecture
Tables & figures
Table 1: LTE CapEx for base case scenario
Table 2: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in France, Germany, UK and Switzerland
Table 3: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe
Table 4: Area, population and density of base case scenario
Table 5: LTE CapEx for base case scenario
Table 6: Sensitivity analysis for level of mast sharing
Table 7: LTE adoption: advantages and drawbacks for various operator types
Table 8: LTE investment for different coverage levels for a deployment in the band 2.6 GHz
Table 9: LTE investment for different coverage level for an urban and suburban deployment in the band 2.6 GHz and a rural deployment in the band 790-862 MHz
Table 10: Services enhanced by LTE
Table 11: Power limits to limit electromagnetic exposure set by the WHO
Table 12: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland
Table 13: The full list of signatories of the GSMA letter
Table 14: LTE frequency bands by geographical area
Table 15: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - FDD mode
Table 16: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - TDD mode
Table 17: TDD and FDD mode advantages and drawbacks
Table 18: Situation of the 2.5-2.69 GHz band
Table 19: Date of availability of LTE spectrum
Table 20: Swedish 2.6 GHz auctions results
Table 21: Summary of US 700 MHz auctions
Table 22: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe
Table 23: Technological comparison of mobile broadband technologies
Figure 1: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 2: Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule
Figure 3: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Figure 4: LTE devices roadmap
Figure 5: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem
Figure 6: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario
Figure 7: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depending on technology deployed
Figure 8: Network cost model calculation of RAN elements needed for LTE coverage
Figure 9: Equipment vendors supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance
Figure 10: Mobile operators supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance
Figure 11: Major operator LTE commercial deployment schedule
Figure 12: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Figure 13: LTE devices roadmap
Figure 14: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 15: LTE adoption forecast for Japan and South Korea (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 16: LTE adoption forecast for China (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 17: US subscribers by technology
Figure 18: LTE adoption forecast for USA (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 19: LTE adoption forecast for the EU5 and Scandinavia (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 20: Cumulated population and area in selected European countries
Figure 21: Subscribers with LTE-enabled handset
Figure 22: Handset mix among subscriber base
Figure 23: Global mobile data and mobile Internet monthly traffic, per service type
Figure 24: Average monthly usage per subscriber
Figure 25: UMTS/HSPA and LTE population coverage over time
Figure 26: Backhaul capacity required per cell site
Figure 27: Backhaul technology breakdown in 2008
Figure 28: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario
Figure 29: Sensitivity of RAN investment to mast sharing level
Figure 30: LTE gradual deployment timeline for an average Western Europe MNO
Figure 31: LTE RAN investment according to population coverage - 2.6 GHz band
Figure 32: Comparison of LTE RAN investment - rural population coverage with 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum
Figure 33: LTE investment per inhabitant for various LTE spectrum scenarios
Figure 34: LTE adoption drivers, service innovation and business models
Figure 35: VoIP competitiveness compared to MNO offers
Figure 36: ARPU trends
Figure 37: Power limits applied in Europe
Figure 38: The case for 2.6 GHz LTE Femtocells
Figure 39: UMTS network and potential sharing
Figure 40: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem
Figure 41: Partnerships between vendors targeting LTE Japanese market
Figure 42: Vendors selected by Verizon Wireless for LTE deployment
Figure 43: Situation of the 698-960 MHz band after WRC-07
Figure 44: TDD and FDD developments
Figure 45: Digital dividend timetable in Europe
Figure 46: Description of OFDM
Figure 47: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depend on technology deployed
Figure 48: FDD and TDD duplex both supported by LTE
Figure 49: The simplified LTE architecture
1.1. The roadmap and forecasts
1.2. Modelling the business cases
1.3. Regulations and technicalities
2. Methodology
2.1. Market assessment and forecasts
2.2. Presentation of LTE deployment model
3. The grand LTE roadmap
3.1. A healthy ecosystem
3.2. Commercial launch scheduled for 2010
3.3. Devices roadmap
3.4. LTE adoption forecasts, by region
4. What is the cost of LTE deployment?
4.1. Scenario of reference: LTE overlay
4.2. Base case results: 2.1 billion EUR over seven years for 50 million population, 75% coverage
5. Which type of operator benefits most?
5.1. LTE: where the integrated operator is winner
5.2. Deployment cost of a greenfield operator
6. LTE: just for urban hotspots, or wider?
6.1. LTE coverage trends
6.2. LTE cost of deployment by population coverage
6.3. Enabling LTE in rural areas: deployment in lower frequency band
7. How to enhance and monetise the service experience: the VoLTE and smart pipe model
7.1. VoIP: LTE set to change operator perceptions
7.2. LTE enhances the mobile experience
7.3. LTE smart pipe: operators leverage their central position
8. Which regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
8.1. The telecom and Internet regulation review
8.2. Restrictions applied to base stations
8.3. Request for more spectrum, less regulation
9. LTE accelerates the consolidation of the mobile market
9.1. Accelerating the trend towards Fixed Mobile Convergence
9.2. LTE strengthens the case for network sharing
9.3. LTE drives partnerships in the mobile sector
10.LTE spectrum: impact on roadmap and costs
10.1. Potential frequency bands: 2G, 3G bands and more
10.2. FDD vs. TDD: paired spectrum still dominant but TDD operations gaining ground24
10.3. Roadmap for awards of LTE spectrum licences
10.4. Cost of LTE frequencies
11.LTE key technological features
11.1. OFDMA and spectrum flexibility
11.2. FDD and TDD convergence
11.3. Evolved Packet Core architecture
Tables & figures
Table 1: LTE CapEx for base case scenario
Table 2: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in France, Germany, UK and Switzerland
Table 3: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe
Table 4: Area, population and density of base case scenario
Table 5: LTE CapEx for base case scenario
Table 6: Sensitivity analysis for level of mast sharing
Table 7: LTE adoption: advantages and drawbacks for various operator types
Table 8: LTE investment for different coverage levels for a deployment in the band 2.6 GHz
Table 9: LTE investment for different coverage level for an urban and suburban deployment in the band 2.6 GHz and a rural deployment in the band 790-862 MHz
Table 10: Services enhanced by LTE
Table 11: Power limits to limit electromagnetic exposure set by the WHO
Table 12: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland
Table 13: The full list of signatories of the GSMA letter
Table 14: LTE frequency bands by geographical area
Table 15: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - FDD mode
Table 16: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - TDD mode
Table 17: TDD and FDD mode advantages and drawbacks
Table 18: Situation of the 2.5-2.69 GHz band
Table 19: Date of availability of LTE spectrum
Table 20: Swedish 2.6 GHz auctions results
Table 21: Summary of US 700 MHz auctions
Table 22: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe
Table 23: Technological comparison of mobile broadband technologies
Figure 1: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 2: Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule
Figure 3: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Figure 4: LTE devices roadmap
Figure 5: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem
Figure 6: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario
Figure 7: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depending on technology deployed
Figure 8: Network cost model calculation of RAN elements needed for LTE coverage
Figure 9: Equipment vendors supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance
Figure 10: Mobile operators supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance
Figure 11: Major operator LTE commercial deployment schedule
Figure 12: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Figure 13: LTE devices roadmap
Figure 14: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 15: LTE adoption forecast for Japan and South Korea (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 16: LTE adoption forecast for China (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 17: US subscribers by technology
Figure 18: LTE adoption forecast for USA (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 19: LTE adoption forecast for the EU5 and Scandinavia (End-2012 to end-2015)
Figure 20: Cumulated population and area in selected European countries
Figure 21: Subscribers with LTE-enabled handset
Figure 22: Handset mix among subscriber base
Figure 23: Global mobile data and mobile Internet monthly traffic, per service type
Figure 24: Average monthly usage per subscriber
Figure 25: UMTS/HSPA and LTE population coverage over time
Figure 26: Backhaul capacity required per cell site
Figure 27: Backhaul technology breakdown in 2008
Figure 28: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario
Figure 29: Sensitivity of RAN investment to mast sharing level
Figure 30: LTE gradual deployment timeline for an average Western Europe MNO
Figure 31: LTE RAN investment according to population coverage - 2.6 GHz band
Figure 32: Comparison of LTE RAN investment - rural population coverage with 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum
Figure 33: LTE investment per inhabitant for various LTE spectrum scenarios
Figure 34: LTE adoption drivers, service innovation and business models
Figure 35: VoIP competitiveness compared to MNO offers
Figure 36: ARPU trends
Figure 37: Power limits applied in Europe
Figure 38: The case for 2.6 GHz LTE Femtocells
Figure 39: UMTS network and potential sharing
Figure 40: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem
Figure 41: Partnerships between vendors targeting LTE Japanese market
Figure 42: Vendors selected by Verizon Wireless for LTE deployment
Figure 43: Situation of the 698-960 MHz band after WRC-07
Figure 44: TDD and FDD developments
Figure 45: Digital dividend timetable in Europe
Figure 46: Description of OFDM
Figure 47: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depend on technology deployed
Figure 48: FDD and TDD duplex both supported by LTE
Figure 49: The simplified LTE architecture
Methodology
The report contains LTE subscriber forecasts for 2012 and 2015, together with background information on factors affecting subscriber growth.
A Network Cost Model developed to assess the level of investment required by LTE deployment.
Sensitivity analyses undertaken to study the impact of main variables:
- legacy network mutualisation,
- coverage level and frequency bands of deployment
LTE business case
A Network Cost Model developed to assess the level of investment required by LTE deployment.
Sensitivity analyses undertaken to study the impact of main variables:
- legacy network mutualisation,
- coverage level and frequency bands of deployment
LTE business case
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