|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 80
Business Monitor International's Hungary Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's oil and gas industry
The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.93% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing just 0.13% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.39mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.33mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.85mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 12.93mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.39mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.54mn b/d by 2013.
As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 636.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 737.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 13.0% growth. Production of an estimated 778.7bcm in 2008 should reach 906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 141.9bcm in 2008 to 168.3bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2008 was an estimated 1.84%, which is likely to have risen to 1.87% by 2013. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to their view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, the publisher is still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Hungarian real GDP is estimated by BMI to contract by 6.4% in 2009, compared with 0.5% growth in 2008. the publisher is assuming 0.1% growth in 2010, 2.6% in 2011, followed by 3.1% in 2012, and 3.9% in 2013. Hungarian oil consumption fell from 198,000b/d in 1990 to a low of 138,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated 169,000b/d in 2008. The publisher is expecting a gradual ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 172,000b/d by 2013. Domestic production, largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from the recent decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes (reaching 154,000b/d by 2013). Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 12.1bcm in 2008 to around 13.8bcm (in 2013) – implying net gas imports reaching 11.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 14.1%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 141,000b/d to 175,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to up from an estimated 12.1bcm to 16.0bcm by 2018, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Hungary occupies 11th place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, ahead of Croatia and Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. There is some slight chance of Hungary challenging the Czech Republic just one point above it, but Turkmenistan is capable of catching and then pulling away from Hungary. The country is now below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It holds eighth place ahead of Slovakia and Turkmenistan. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country. The presence of Turkmenistan below could pose a long-term threat.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
