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Bahrain Retail Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 40
Bahrain Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's retail industry.
Bahrain Retail Report Q309 predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$4.33bn in 2008 to US$4.80bn by 2013. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Bahrain’s retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, growing interest in Western styles of retailing, and a steady rise in disposable income.
Bahrain’s nominal GDP was US$21.90bn in 2008, with a decline of 0.1% now predicted for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. Although the population is forecast to decline from 1.07mn in 2008 to 1.01mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise to US$19,997.
Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Information’s tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals have risen by an average of 10-15% a year over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states. Tourism arrivals are projected to rise by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next decade.
Bahrain’s retail market will also continue to benefit from events such as the annual Formula One motor race, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004.
In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the United Nations (UN) as economically active, with 40.7% in the critical (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 72.7% of the population is expected to be economically active, but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to fall to 39.9%.
A very high level of urbanisation is contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 91% by 2010. About 89% of the population lives in the two principal cities of Manama and Al Muharraq.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by more than 73%, from US$0.004bn in 2008 to US$0.006bn by 2013. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by nearly 34% during the period, from US$0.84bn in 2008 to US$1.12bn by 2013, while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$0.42bn in 2008 to US$0.54bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 29%. Retail sales for our set of MEA countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$384bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1,214bn.
In 2008, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.5% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 81.4% by 2013. For Bahrain, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.1% is expected to fall to 0.8% by 2013.
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