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Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 63
Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.36% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making a contribution of just 1.06% to supply. In developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 13.88mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.06mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.70mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.11mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 18.86%, while it accounted for 5.39% of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.0%, with a 4.83% share of production.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
German real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI to fall 5.8% in 2009, compared with estimated growth of 1.3% in 2008. We are assuming an average 0.02% GDP contraction in 2009-2013. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2013, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.41mn b/d after declining demand in 2008/09. Gas consumption is now more than 20% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 83bcm in 2008 to 93bcm by 2013. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 14.5bcm in 2008 to 13.5bcm over the period.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 3.1%, with volumes peaking at 2.41mn b/d in 2011-13, then heading lower to 2.29mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 60,000b/d to just 30,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 83bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 90bcm by 2016-2018. Imports are expected to peak at 79.5bcm in 2013/2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the Appendix to this report.
BMI’s long-term political risk rating for Germany is currently 85.8, in line with the Developed Markets average and behind only the UK and Norway in Developed Europe. Our long-term economic risk rating for Germany is 73.4 (behind only Norway in Developed Europe), which compares with a Developed Markets average of 69.3. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
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