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Turkey Retail Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 46
Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
Turkey Retail Report Q309 predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$246bn in 2008 to US$309bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales. Turkey’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$729.53bn in 2008, with a decline of 5.7% expected in 2009 as the country slips into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.0% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 71.3mn in 2008 to an estimated 75.6mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$11,790 by the end of the forecast period. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,043 in 2008 to US$7,651 by
2013.
Salaries in Turkey remain low, with this report estimating the 2007 average annual wage at US$5,848. However, Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year some 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better-paid jobs in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, standing at 12.3% in 2008 and potentially peaking at 16.0% in 2009.
In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as active, with 41.0% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.8% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
This report calculates that organised retail accounted for an estimated US$96.63bn of overall sales in 2008, rising to a forecast US$180.87bn by 2013. This represents an annual average growth rate of 14.1%, compared with the predicted 6.7% (in dollar terms) annual growth rate for overall retail sales. Food and drink had a 25.0% share of the total retail market in 2008, forecast to ease to 23.2% by 2013. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$1.15bn in 2008 to US$2.01bn by 2013, with automotive sales up 20% during the same period to US$21.92bn. Sales of consumer electronics products, meanwhile, are forecast to increase by a massive 109%, from US$7.54bn in 2008 to US$15.77bn by 2013.
Retail sales for the universe of CEE countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1.20trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on a macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.82trn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2008 accounted for an estimated 83% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 85% by 2013. For Turkey, the estimated 2008 market share of 20.5% is expected to fall to 20.0% by 2013.
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