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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 50
Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry
The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.98% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 13.88mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.06mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.70mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.11mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 3.86%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to regional production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.65%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Belgian real GDP is now forecast by BMI to contract 2.3% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.2% in 2008. We are assuming an average 0.7% growth in 2009-2013. Oil demand is believed to have shrunk in 2008 and is forecast to decline further in 2009, before recovering slowly to reach 830,000b/d by 2013. From an estimated 17.0bcm in 2008, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 17.9bcm by 2013, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 0.60%, with volumes easing slowly from 830,000b/d in 2008 to 825,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period, with a more significant dip in demand during 2009 as a response to economic slowdown. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 17.0bcm to 18.8bcm by 2018, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s Country Risk team, Belgium’s long-term political risk score is 74.7, the lowest in our Developed Markets universe, behind even Italy, and well below the Developed Markets average of 85.8. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 70.4, above the Developed Markets average of 69.39. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment, but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
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