Bahrain Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 77
The Bahrain Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In Q309, the author expects Bahrain’s total drug market value to increase from US$115mn, in 2008, to US$118mn by 2013, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.52% in US dollar terms.
The proportion of GDP dedicated to pharmaceutical spending will reach 0.60% by the end of our forecast period. Per capita drug expenditure will be US$116.
The prescription drug market will rise from US$102mn in 2008 to US$106mn by 2013. Note that the Bahrain government is moving slowly toward a more pro-generic drug policy in light of rising prescription prices. The country imports most of its pharmaceuticals from France, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and the US. We believe it is highly likely that the foreign-derived medicines are patented as a result, mirroring the UAE – a lack of a proper or thorough regulatory process within Bahrain necessitates FDA- or EMEA-produced drugs as a quality control. This also leads to an unintentional preference for more expensive patented products.
Drug exports are unlikely to increase dramatically in the medium term. The small manufacturing sector is unlikely to be producing a diverse patented portfolio and therefore potential for expansion is limited without government or private investment. During Q309 it has become more apparent that the government is trying to shift perceptions that the Bahraini population can afford more expensive drugs.
We believe that the government is likely to enter more serious discussions on generic substitution and therefore this market will be ideal for off-patent drugmakers looking for a new export destination. Good trade relations with developed countries also place Bahrain in a favourable position for negotiation, and a change in import composition regarding the patent/generic ratios may invite competitive pricing in the patented drug sector by default. Our forecast indicates that generic medicines will reach a value of US$8mn by 2013, comprising 6.6% of the total drug market and only 7.5% of the total prescription market.
The over-the-counter (OTC) drug market is expected to undergo a modest decline during our forecast period, with compound annual growth only -1.31% through to 2013. The Bahraini population are slow to adopt a self-medicating approach, and with a slow rise in generic spending expected, we believe that patients prefer to see a doctor and get cheaper prescribed drugs than explore OTCs. We maintain our view that the consumer health segment is underexploited. Despite the small market size, there is huge potential for the OTC to experience positive growth. Clear retail policies and increasing the choice of OTCs may provide an avenue for increased sales.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bahrain Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Bahrain Political SWOT
Bahrain Economic SWOT
Bahrain Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q309
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Bahrain – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
GCC Healthcare Collaboration
Intellectual Property Developments
Pricing and Reimbursement Regime
Regional Price Harmonisation
Free Trade Agreement with the US
Other Free Trade Agreements
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In Bahrain, 2002
HIV/AIDS
Healthcare Sector
Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Healthcare
Health Insurance
Table: National Health Insurance Scheme Breakdown
Strategic Healthcare Goals
Healthcare Sector Investment
Features Of Dilmunia Health Island
Pharmaceutical Sector
Pharmaceutical Retail
Research and Development
International Collaboration
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Bahrain - Drug Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Bahrain - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity, 2005-2013
Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Bahrain – Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (BHDmn unless otherwise indicated)
Patented Market Forecast
Table: Bahrain - Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Generics Drug Market Forecast
Table: Bahrain - Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
OTC Market Forecast
Table: Bahrain - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (BHDmn unless otherwise stated)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Bahrain - Pharmaceutical Trade Balance Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
Medical Devices
Table: Bahrain - Medical Device Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Bahrain - Other Health Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2003-2013
Key Risks to the Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Multinational Companies
Novartis
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
GlaxoSmithKline
Indigenous Companies
Bahrain Industrial Pharmaceutical Co (Bidapharm)
Al-Jishi Corporation
Behzad Medical Establishment
Yousuf Mahmood Husain Company
Country Snapshot: Bahrain Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Table: Education
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages
Our Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
Novartis, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Bahrain Industrial Pharmaceutical Co (Bidapharm) and Al-Jishi Corporation
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