|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 77
The Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's oil and gas industry
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from the author’s forecasts that the country will account for 2.19% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.39mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.33mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.85mn b/d by 2013.
Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 12.93mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.39mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.54mn b/d by 2013.
As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 636.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 737.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 13.0% growth. Production of an estimated 778.7bcm in 2008 should reach 906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 141.9bcm in 2008 to 168.3bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2008 was an estimated 0.57%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.72%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The author is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The author’s full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the author’s assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the author’s forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Bulgarian real GDP is now forecast by the author to fall by 3.1% in 2009, following 2008 growth of 5.8%. We are assuming a further 1.5% contraction in 2010, followed by growth of 2.4% in 2011, 3.0% in 2012, and 3.4% in 2013. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 128,000b/d by 2013. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.1bcm by the end of 2013, demand is heading for 5.30bcm, requiring imports of 4.20bcm
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 11.0%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 122,000b/d in 2008 to 142,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall over the short term from the estimated 2008 level of 0.3bcm to just 0.1bcm in 2009, before recovering to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2008 level of 3.0bcm to 5.6bcm at the end of the period. Details of the author’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Bulgaria now shares eighth place with Romania in the author’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, poor production outlook, and limited competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset somewhat by reasonable country risk factors. Long-term scope exists for Bulgaria to overtake Romania. The country is now at the bottom of the league table in the author’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Also available
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Customers who bought this item also bought
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Romania Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
|
|
|
|
