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Europe Telecom Insider / Vol. 1, No 6, Edition 8 - Europe’s Smartphone Market: Sustained Growth Is at Risk

Pyramid Research, Inc., Aug 2009, Pages: 14


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Although smartphone sales in Europe are still growing, market participants must act now to minimize the recession's impact on smartphone sales and position smartphones for post-recession growth, according to this new report.

Europe's Smartphone Market: Sustained Growth Is at Risk examines the impact that the economic downturn will have on European smartphone sales in the short and medium term, offering guidance to smartphone market participants on how to mitigate the effects of the economic slump and prepare for post-recession growth in Europe. This 14-page report provides Pyramid Research's five-year forecast on smartphone adoption in Europe and examines in more detail the market-positioning strategies of the leading smartphone vendors: Apple, Nokia, and Research in Motion (RIM).

While the author expects total handset sales to decline 21 percent in Europe in 2009, smartphones sales, driven mostly by market developments in Western Europe, will continue to grow robustly – about 22 percent year on year, notes Stela Bokun, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. In CEE, however, Pyramid believes smartphone sales will fall 8 percent in 2009. 'Even when the region's economy is doing well, device vendors and operators typically report much lower smartphone handset sales in CEE countries,' she says. 'Recently this situation has worsened significantly: Many CEE countries are seeing staggering GDP declines, significant currency devaluations and skyrocketing unemployment.'

Smartphone market players should implement strategies that are more likely to maintain sales volume during the downturn and expand business once the economy improves. 'If smartphones do not get cheaper, and if buyers continue to bear the full burden of currency fluctuations, smartphone uptake will suffer in a prolonged recession,' Bokun says. While some Western Europe countries, such as Spain, have been severely affected by the recession, price adjustments are particularly needed in response to economic conditions in CEE markets. 'Some vendors, such as LG and Samsung, have already addressed this situation by offering more affordable smartphones in some CEE markets,' she adds.

Also, in the more developed Western European markets, smartphone applications will have to be compelling for smartphone uptake to remain unaffected by the deteriorating economy. Furthermore, if demand for advanced data services falls – and the author does expect that the growth in revenue from data services will slow in 2009 – the need for smartphones is likely also to decline. 'By focusing more on retaining their most lucrative customers – smartphone users – and encouraging these customers to use their mobile data networks, operators will keep their margins comparatively stable in the current economy and increase them once the economy improves,' Bokun explains. 'In other words, today's short-term survival strategy will turn into a winner in the medium term.'

Key findings

- While smartphone vendors and operators are still succeeding in growing smartphone sales in Europe despite the economic slowdown, more can be done to minimize the impact of the recession on smartphone sales and to position smartphones for post-recession growth.

- If smartphones do not get cheaper and if mobile customers remain the only ones bearing the risks related to currency fluctuations in individual markets, uptake will suffer in a prolonged recession and post-recession data services revenue will take longer to recover.

- In the more developed Western European markets, smartphone applications will have to be compelling for smartphone uptake to remain unaffected by the deteriorating economy.

- If demand for advanced data services drops, demand for smartphones is likely to follow. Mobile operators should promote advanced data services that require smartphones. By retaining their most lucrative smartphone customers and attracting new ones, operators will maintain or increase their ARPS. In the current economy, sustaining pre-recession margins is every operator’s dream.


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