United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 64
United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Kingdom's oil and gas industry.
The latest UK Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 12.46% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 24.64% to supply. In developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day b/d in 2008. It is set to rise to around 13.88mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe’s regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.06mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.70mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.11mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. The UK’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 20.68%, while it contributed 26.76% to production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.56%, with production accounting for 21.84%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. This report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
The UK’s real GDP is now forecast to fall by 4.2% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.7% in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.1% growth in 2009-2013. We are currently forecasting 1.32mn b/d of oil output in 2009. By 2013, UK oil production is unlikely to be above 0.93mn b/d. Oil consumption is expected to have reached 1.73mn b/d by 2013, providing a net crude import requirement of at least 800,000b/d.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in UK oil production of 45.5%, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 1.54mn b/d in 2008 to 0.84mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given oil consumption forecast to decrease by 0.8%, imports rise from an estimated 0.16mn b/d to 0.85mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2008 level of 72bcm to 48bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 91bcm to 100bcm, requiring imports reaching 52bcm, largely in the form of pipeline gas, with some LNG. Details of the10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The long-term political rating for the UK is 92.5, well above the Developed Markets average of 85.8, according to Country Risk analysts. The UK is behind only Norway in our European developed markets universe when using this measure. Our long-term economic rating is 72.3, which compares with a Developed Markets average of 69.3. This also puts the UK behind Germany and Norway among developed European countries. The UK has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a major, but mature and highly competitive upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is also competitive and de-regulated. International and domestic operators control gas distribution and supply, as well as electricity generation
and distribution.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
United Kingdom Political SWOT
United Kingdom Economic SWOT
UK Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: UK Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: UK Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks To orecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United Kingdom – Macroeconomic Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – UK Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Royal Dutch Shell
BP
Total
ExxonMobil
Petronas – Summary
Marathon Oil – Summary
TAQA – Summary
Centrica – Summary
Dana Petroleum – Summary
Eni – Summary
Igas – Summary
Others – Summary
Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm)
UK Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BP
- Total, ExxonMobil
- Petronas
- Marathon Oil
- TAQA
- Centrica
- Dana Petroleum
- Eni
- Igas
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