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France Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, Aug 2009, Pages: 60
France Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's oil and gas industry.
The latest France Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 13.87% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 13.88mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.06mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.70mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.11mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. France’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 9.54%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 8.88%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, them forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
French real GDP is now forecast to fall by 3.0% in 2009, compared with estimated growth of 0.7% in 2008. We are assuming an average 0.6% growth in 2009-13. Oil consumption is set to stagnate in spite of increased economic activity, with demand of an estimated 1.90mn b/d in 2008 expected to slip further in 2009/10. Crude oil imports are expected to have reached 1.92mn b/d by 2013, with domestic crude oil production falling from an estimated 20,000b/d to 9,000b/d over the period. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than for oil, with new sources of supply being lined up by GDF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt, Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is likely to have reached 43.5bcm by 2013. Production is negligible, so imports will rise to 41.7bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in French oil and gas liquids consumption of just 0.79%, with estimated 2008 demand of 1.90mn b/d slipping below 1.89mn b/d in 2009, before rising slowly to a peak of 1.93mn b/d in 2013/14. By 2018, we are forecasting French consumption of 1.92mn b/d. Production is set to fall from 20,000b/d to just 6,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 42.0bcm to no more than 44.5bcm by 2018, based largely on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. France’s long-term political risk score is 84.0, putting it above Belgium, Italy, Greece and Spain, but below Norway, Germany and the UK. The Developed Markets average is 85.8. The long-term economic rating is 66.5, which is below the Developed Markets average of 69.3. France has a fully privatised and competitive oil and gas industry. State holdings have been reduced greatly in electricity and gas suppliers Électricité de France (EdF) and GDF Suez. The upstream and downstream oil segments are privatised and deregulated, with considerable IOC involvement in refining and distribution, even though former state company Total has the greatest market share.
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