India Agribusiness Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, August 2009, Pages: 58
Business Monitor International's India Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on India's agribusiness service.
At the start of July, the annual monsoon finally reached all areas of the country. The poor rains in June sparked fears that the coming year's agricultural production could be blighted by water shortages. Rainfall in June was 46% down on normal levels according to the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon rains also failed to reach important agricultural areas during the first month of the monsoon. Despite the improved picture at the start of July, there is still a risk that agriculture could suffer if the rains do not continue to come. The shortfall in June has left irrigation systems lower than would be hoped for the time of year. Rain fed agriculture will be even more badly affected.
While the health of agriculture in India will always be affected by the monsoon, the lack of development in the sector makes it far more vulnerable to fluctuations than a more modern agricultural sector would be. A high proportion of Indian agriculture is rain fed with no or very rudimentary irrigation. There are fears that climate change could make weather patterns even less predictable then they are currently. With India's growing and increasingly wealthier population, demand for food is only going to increase. Poor harvests owing to erratic weather would see prices rise and low-income consumers pushed back (or further) into poverty. Improvement in agricultural infrastructure is vital to protect the majority of the population still reliant on the land for their income as well as to provide reliable and affordable food supplies to the growing urban population.
There are now hopes that following the Congress Party's unexpectedly strong victory in the general election of May 2009 more funding will be allocated to improving rural infrastructure - the budget, unveiled at the beginning of July, set out the target of agricluture achieving a 4% yearly growth rate. The collapse of sugar production this year to a forecast 14.96mn tonnes from 28.63mn tonnes has fuelled concerns over the security of agricultural production.
Aside from the expected collapse in sugar production, major crops are on for a good year in 2009. Rice and wheat production are both high for the second year in a row. Government stocks of both grains are now overflowing following record procurement levels. This should see a relaxation of the export restrictions following the national stock take in September.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- India Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
- Supply Demand Analysis
India Livestock Outlook
- Table: India Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
India Dairy Outlook
- Table: India Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: India Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: India Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
India Sugar Outlook
- Table: India Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
India Grains Outlook
- Table: India Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
India Rice Outlook
- Table: India Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
India Soybean Outlook
- Table: India Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: India Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
India Coffee Outlook
- Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption
- Table: India Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soy
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat
- Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
- Table: India Food Consumption Indicators , 2005-2013
- Confectionery
- Table: India Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2005-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Processed Food Industry Indicators, 2005-2013
- Trade
- Table: India Food & Drink Trade Indicators, 2005-2013 (US$mn)
- Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail
- Table: India MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2007 and 2017 (%)
Macroeconomic Forecast
- India - Economic Activity
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How BMI Generate Their Industry Forecasts
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