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3Q09 China Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013: Total wireless subscribers in China to reach 1.22 billion in 2013 with China Mobile taking 71.7% market share
IE Market Research Corp, Aug 2009
Our Mobile Operator Forecast on China provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for China’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for China include: China Mobile Ltd., China Unicom Ltd., and China Telecom Corporation Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space
+18.1% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels in China continue declining
-7.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth slows down China's mobile operator space
+2.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
EBITDA growth is slowing down in China
+1.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in China to reach 1.22 billion in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in China will increase from 641.2 million in 2008 to 1.22 billion in 2013.
- Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 876.8 million subscribers in 2013.
China Telecom's market share will continue increasing over the next five years
- We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 4.4% in 2008 to 11.5% in 2013.
- On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.8% in 2008 to 16.8% in 2013.
- We forecast that China Mobile's market share will remain in the range of 71% - 72% over the next several years.
ARPU levels will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that ARPU declines in China will continue. We are projecting that China Mobile will see its monthly ARPU decrease from RMB 83.00 in 2008 to RMB 58.13 in 2013.
- We expect that China Telecom's monthly ARPU will also decline from RMB 63.60 in 2008 to RMB 41.99 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will improve over the 2009-2013 period
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 41.0% in 2009 to 42.5% in 2013.
- According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin will increase from 52.8% to 57.2% while that of China Unicom increases from 37.6% to 40.1% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
- China Telecom's EBITDA margin will also rise significantly from -8.9% (negative EBITDA) in 2009 to 19.8% in 2013.
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