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3Q09 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Australia to reach 31 million in 2013 with profitability at Vodafone and Hutchison improving over the next five years
IE Market Research Corp, Aug 2009
The Mobile Operator Forecast on Australia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Australia’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Australia include: Telstra Corporation Limited, SingTel Optus Pty Limited, Vodafone Group Plc, and Hutchison Telecoms (Australia) Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.Subscriber growth is slowing down at Vodafone and Hutchison.
+7.6% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Overall positive ARPU growth continues in Australia
+4.6% industry-average ARPU growth (YoY) in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +6.8% in 1Q.2009
EBITDA growth remains strong in Australia's mobile operator space
Industry average EBITDA growth was +11.4% in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Australia to reach 31 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Australia will increase from 23.6 million in 2008 to 31.1 million in 2013.
- All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- Telstra will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 12.3 million subscribers in 2013.
- Optus will remain in second place while Vodafone will remain in third place over the forecast period.
Telstra leads Australia’s mobile operator space, but its subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
- Telstra will continue to lead Australia in subscriber market shares. However, our model predicts that Telstra will see its market share decrease from 41.1% in 2008 to 39.6% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that the smallest operator, Hutchison, will see its market share increase from 8.6% in 2008 to 9.9% in 2013, and Optus’s market share will go up slightly from 32.4% in 2008 to 32.7% in 2013.
- Vodafone's share of total subscribers will remain stable at approximately 17.8% over the next several years.
The average ARPU level in Australia will be increasing over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013
- Although ARPU levels are declining in most countries around the world, that is not the case with Australia. Given the latest quarterly results, our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will increase from AUD 49.95 in 2008 to AUD 63.46 in 2013.
- This overall increase is led by Telstra: Our model predicts that Telstra will receive monthly ARPU of AUD 69.68 in 2013, up from AUD 51.57 in 2008.
- We expect that Hutchison's ARPU will also rise from AUD 67.70 in 2008 to AUD 68.73 in 2013.
Telstra's EBITDA margin to deteriorate while that of Vodafone improves over the next several years
- Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will decline from 29.7% in 2008 to 23.9% in 2013.
- We expect that the largest operator, Telstra, will see its EBITDA margin fall from 38.0% in 2008 to 31.1% in 2013 as its EBITDA grows more slowly than its revenue over the next several years.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will improve from 20.5% to 26.7% and Hutchison's EBITDA margin will improve from 12.3% to 15.5% over the period from 2008 to 2013.
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