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3Q09 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 29.5 million in 2013 with Telus Mobility taking market share away from Bell Mobility over the next five years
IE Market Research Corp, Aug 2009
The Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Canada’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation), and MTS Allstream Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Stable subscriber growth continues in Canada's mobile operator space
+7.4% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth across operators
-1.8% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Network Usage growth indicators have decreased
+0.5% industry average growth in MOU/Sub in 1Q.2009
EBITDA growth in Canada slows down
+1.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 29.5 million in 2013
- According to our forecasting model, total subscribers in Canada will increase from 23.2 million in 2009 to 29.5 million in 2013.
- We expect that all operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- In terms of subscriber numbers, Rogers Wireless will maintain its lead over Telus Mobility, Bell, and MTS over the next five years.
Telus Mobility's subscriber market share will increase over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber market share will remain at approximately 36.9% from 2009 to 2013.
- On the other hand, Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers will decline from 30.3% in 2009 to 29.3% in 2013.
- In contrast, we predict that market share at Telus Mobility will increase from 28.6% in 2009 to 29.5% in 2013.
- We expect that MTS will continue to have a subscriber market share of 2.2% - 2.3% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years
- Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.
- Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy a higher ARPU level than Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility, but we still expect that Rogers Wireless's ARPU will decline from C$ 63.70 in 2009 to C$ 58.22 in 2013.
- On the other hand, average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will decline to C$ 55.79 and C$ 43.62 in 2013, according to our model.
Profitability at Bell Mobility and Rogers Wireless will improve over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 39.4% in 2013, slightly up from 39.2% in 2009.
- Our forecasting model predicts that Bell Mobility will see its EBITDA margin increase from 41.1% to 42.9% while Rogers Wireless's EBITDA margin improves from 42.8% to 43.6% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
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