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3Q09 United States Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013: Total wireless subscribers in the US to reach 362 million in 2013 with Verizon Wireless continuing to enjoy the highest level of profitability
IE Market Research Corp, Aug 2009
The Mobile Operator Forecast on the United States provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the US wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for the United States include: Verizon Wireless (Joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.), AT&T Mobility LLC, Sprint Nextel Corporation, and T-Mobile USA, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth is slowing down in the US wireless market
+5.7% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU growth continues to be negative
-1.2% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
The industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of +1.0% in 1Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth at Verizon Wireless and AT&T continues
+3.7% industry-average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in the United States to reach 362 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in USA will increase from 270.3 million in 2008 to 362.3 million in 2013.
- Verizon Wireless will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country. Our model predicts that Verizon's wireless's subscriber base will increase to 129.9 million in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that AT&T will have 112.7 million subscribers and T-Mobile will have 49.8 million subscribers in 2013.
In spite of rapid growth of smaller operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T will see their subscriber market shares increase over the next five years
- Our forecasting model predicts that Verizon Wireless's market share will increase from 31.5% to 35.9% and AT&T's market share will increase from 28.5% to 31.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- We also expect that T-Mobile's market share will rise over the next five years while that of Sprint declines dramatically.
Industry-average ARPU level in the United States to decline slightly over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013
- We expect that the industry-average monthly ARPU level will fall from $51.29 in 2008 to $49.64 in 2013.
- However, the overall ARPU decline is largely driven by smaller operators. We expect that Verizon's monthly ARPU level will increase from $50.26 in 2008 to $52.83 in 2013, and AT&T's ARPU will remain at approximately $50.80 over the next several years.
Verizon Wireless will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability in USA
- We forecast that Verizon Wireless's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 39.0% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013.
- Our model also predicts that AT&T's EBITDA margin will increase from 34.2% to 34.9% and T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will increase from 28.0% to 29.6% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
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