Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, January 2009, Pages: 49
The Vietnam Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Vietnam's agribusiness service.
Vietnam's agricultural sector has come a long way since the opening up of the economy in 1986 with the Doi Moi reforms. In the new Vietnam Agribusiness Report for Q1 2009, we examine where the industry will fare moving into the next decade.
The report forecasts Vietnamese GDP per capita to grow by more than 125% to 2012 reaching US$1,854. This will provide opportunities to both increase and diversify food consumption in the country. Boosted disposable incomes will allow Vietnamese consumers to increase spending on more expensive food products such as meat, dairy and wheat-based products. This trend will also be helped by the increasing prevalence of refrigerators in the home and the spread of modern retail.
The rising demand for meat will lead to strong growth in Vietnam's livestock industry over the medium term. We are forecasting poultry and beef production to grow by 34% and 33%, respectively, to 2012 and pork production to expand by 44%. For poultry and beef, these gains should allow a small surplus to be available for export by the end of our forecast period. For pork, however, which makes up around 80% of Vietnamese meat consumption, we expect that Vietnam will remain a net importer.
The dairy sector has also seen a considerable expansion over recent years, with growth in fluid milk production of 190% from 2003 to 2007. We expect this strong growth to continue, though at a slightly more subdued pace, and are forecasting production to increase by 63% to 2012.
Despite increasing interest in new food products, rice will remain Vietnam's food staple and most significant crop. From the end of 2007, rice prices both domestically and on the world market surged upwards. With Vietnam the world's second largest exporter of the crop, the high prices presented the government with a golden opportunity to increase export revenues. At the same time, however, the high prices on the domestic market were putting pressure on many poorer Vietnamese, causing worries to social stability as the prospect of food price protests loomed on the horizon. The government in the end decided to put domestic concerns first and decided to limit rice exports for much of the first half of the year. Despite a reduction in the volume, export revenues for the first nine months of the year were almost double that of the same period in 2007.
Another major agricultural export earner is coffee production. Vietnam is the world's second largest coffee exporter and the largest exporter of the Robusta variety. Despite a poor year in 2008 as the yields were hit by poor weather and a decline in fertiliser use due to high prices, we expect Vietnamese coffee production to remain strong over our forecast period. The government is also working to increase export revenues by improving quality and is also trying to boost domestic interest in coffee drinking.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SWOT ANALYSIS
- Vietnam Agricultural SWOT
SUB-SECTOR SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS
- Vietnam Coffee Outlook
- Table: Vietnam Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
- Risks To Outlook
- Vietnam Dairy Outlook
- Table: Vietnam Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
- Risks To Outlook
- Vietnam Grain Outlook
- Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Risks To Outlook
- Vietnam Livestock Outlook
- Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Risks To Outlook
- Vietnam Rice Outlook
- Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Risks To Outlook
COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS
- Rice
- Coffee
- Milk
- Corn
- Wheat
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
DOWNSTREAM SUPPLY CHAIN CONTEXT
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Vietnam MGR Indicators -- Value Sales By Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecast 2005-2012
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format -- Historical Data & Forecast 2007 & 2017
- Food
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts 2003-2012
- Canned Food
- Confectionery
- Table: Value/Volume Sales Of Selected Food Sub-Sectors -- Historical Data & Forecasts 2003-2012
- Trade
- Table: Vietnam Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts 2003-2012
MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT
- Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity
BMI FORECAST MODELLING
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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