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Egypt Agribusiness Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Jan 2009, Pages: 41
This Egypt Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Egypt's agribusiness service.
Despite its vast landmass Egypt continues to be dependant on agricultural imports to meet the needs of its growing population of some 77mn. As discussed in the recently published Egypt Agribusiness Report for Q109, the main reason for this is the country's severely limited agricultural lands. Currently, only 3.5% of Egypt's landmass, mainly around the Nile delta, qualifies as agricultural land. In an effort to redress the situation, the government has made land reclamation projects a priority, despite the criticism these frequently draw. The government places great emphasis on the agricultural sector as it understands its significance to the national economy, with this sector accounting for nearly 20% of both GDP and exports and with it employing nearly 30% of the working population.
As urban sprawl further encroached upon the land available for agricultural use, the government has placed an even greater emphasis on such reclamation projects. According to official statistics, reclamation desert areas increased from 2.43m hectares (ha) in the 1980s to 3.44mn ha by the end of 2004, representing an average increase of 37,000 ha a year. This reclaimed land is highly productive and well suited to agriculture. The ministry has now set a target of reclaiming 1.34mn ha between 1997-2017. However, the plan is highly controversial due to the level of water usage involved. Egypt is already classified as below the water poverty line, which is 1,000m3 per person per year, with the average Egyptian having access to only 950m3 of fresh water per year, a figure that is expected to decline by 650m3 a year by 2017.
Another means of increasing output levels in the past has been to turn to genetically modified (GM) crops, which are both high yielding and well adapted to the local environment. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's Rice Research and Training Centre (RRTC), hybrid crops have yields 23.7% higher than their standard counterparts, and, consequently, the country's rice yields are already some of the highest in the world, meaning that this is no longer a viable avenue for growth.
Cereals such as wheat, corn, sorghum and rice make up the bulk of the Egyptian diet, providing over 72% of daily energy and protein supplies. The demand for wheat is expected to experience strong growth in the domestic market, rising by 21.5% between 2008 and 2012, following an equally strong increase of 21.2 between 2003 and 2007. Meanwhile, rice consumption is forecast to experience a slower and more steady growth rate of 5.8% between 2008 and 2012, following a similar growth rate of 7.6% between 2003 and 2007. Rice and bread are both staples of the Egyptian diet, and, as consumers become better off financially as disposable incomes rise, they will begin to consume more of such staple goods.
The main risk to the publisher's outlook is food price inflation, which has been plaguing Egypt over the past year, resulting in numerous protests. If food prices were to continue to rise or the country were to experience a prolonged economic downturn, this would have a significant impact and the publisher would amend its forecasts accordingly.
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