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Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, April 2009, Pages: 44
This Colombia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Colombia's agribusiness service.
In this Colombia Agribusiness Report for Q2 2009 the publisher introduces the new Business Environment section. This gives an overview of agriculture in Colombia and its significance to the overall economy and labour market. They also cover support given to agriculture by the government.
The publisher expects the value of Colombia's key agricultural export, coffee, to fall in 2009 as production falls for the second year in a row. In 2008, despite a 2% drop in export volumes to 11.10mn bags, export revenues rose 9.9% to a record US$1.88bn. Production for the year fell by 9.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 11.48mn tonnes owing to a combination of poor weather, reduced fertiliser use and rejuvenation of plantations.
In 2009, this trick will not be repeated as prices are well down from their peak in early 2008 and the publisher forecasts production to fall by a further 4.1% y-o-y to 11.01mn tonnes. Saying that, the fall in revenues will not be too disastrous - the publisher forecasts coffee to average USc105/lb in 2009, which is still fairly high by historical standards, and to rise to USc115/lb in 2010. Obviously the risks to this forecast is that the current world recession is longer and deeper than the publisher currently expects. If this proves to be the case, demand and prices could fall further putting pressure on living standards for the small-hold farmers who produce around three quarters of Colombia's coffee.
One commodity that is bucking the trend for falling prices is cocoa. In February 2009 cocoa was trading at record levels above GBP1,900 per tonne. Colombia's cocoa sector, however, has been moribund for some time with production falling throughout this decade. For the past few years, Colombia has been a net cocoa importer and the publisher does not see this changing through the publisher's forecast period. Cocoa production has fallen across Latin America, in large part because of outbreaks of witches' broom, a fungus that destroys cocoa seeds in their pods.
Fortunes look better for the sugar sector and the publisher expects production of both sugar and ethanol to increase overthe publisher's forecast period to 2013 as cane yields and processing technology improve. One problem for the sector though is poor infrastructure increasing the difficulty of transport and driving up costs.
On the whole, despite the falling prices for many soft commodities, compared to historical levels - before the boom in 2007 and 2008 - prices are still reasonably high for most agricultural products and the publisher expects Colombia's agricultural sector to hold up relatively well this year as other sectors struggle. Beyond that, assuming the improvement in the security situation made under President Alvaro Uribe can be maintained, the publisher expects the sector to perform strongly as world growth picks up and demand for Colombia's agricultural products increases both at home and abroad.
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