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Egypt Agribusiness Report Q2 2009
Business Monitor International, April 2009, Pages: 40
This Egypt Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Egypt's agribusiness service.
The rather limited supply of arable acreage - roughly 3.5% of total land area - has largely contributed to Egypt's position as a net food importer. Despite this, the sector has been targeted by the government as requiring an overhaul in order to boost domestic food security, and it is against this backdrop that the publisher publishes its Egypt Agribusiness Report Q209. In addition to the sub-sectors covered in the Q109 outlook, the publisher has introduced a Business Environment Overview as a means of gauging the wider dynamics at play in domestic farming.
The Egyptian population is the fastest growing in the Arab world, adding to the pressure on an already tight domestic food supply. In addition to the pace with which the population is expanding, rapid urbanisation and a move towards industrial and service-based employment has severely dampened agricultural potential. Despite this, the importance of the industry cannot be underestimated, particularly as Egypt's domestic balance has deteriorated, meaning that imports will be harder to fund while food subsidies are unlikely to be as readily available.
In order to encourage a greater level of production, private-led development reforms have been made, predominantly via the selling of state-owned enterprises, which have indeed had the desired effect. Foreign direct investment flows have been liquid, although it should be noted that a large proportion of such capital is leveraged through firms with interests in sectors - such as tourism - which have suffered markedly during the financial crisis. Furthermore, water availability remains a real problem; per capita water consumption is already below recognised international standards and with the production of staple goods, such as rice, using large volumes, Egypt's relatively weak irrigational capacities are being stretched to the limits.
As such, the publisher forecasts rice production to exhibit a slight downturn which is particularly notable considering output expanded 18.41% during the previous outlook period. Corn is also predicted to suffer an overall production shortfall between 2009 and 2013 which is likely to have dire consequences for an already diminishing beef market; the publisher predicts beef production to decrease by a massive 84% despite consumption growth over the projection outlook. However, wheat, sugar and milk are all predicted to experience both supply and demand growth, contributing to mixed fortunes for the entire sector.
A search for other sources of staple consumption has seen potato cultivation heralded as a viable alternative to rice farming. Potatoes have a far shorter harvest cycle of three months, compared to rice, and more importantly, require less water, thus alleviating the pressure on the domestic supply. Despite the potential of potato growing in Egypt, the real problem lies in persuading the public to move away from rice consumption when it is so embedded in the national diet.
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