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Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Nov 2008, Pages: 54
The Argentina Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Argentina's agribusiness service.
The Argentine agricultural industry is characterised by strong production and large-scale mechanisation and enjoys a position as one of the world's foremost agricultural exporters, with the industry contributing over US$16bn to GDP. With GDP forecast to increase by over 50% to 2012, the potential for agriculture to further drive growth in the country is enormous.
The country's per capita meat consumption is the highest in the world, while its competitiveness in beef production means that the industry plays a major role in political and economic decisions. In our Argentina Agribusiness Report Q109, we look at how the local agricultural sectors have responded to various internal and external supply and demand issues. For instance, high tariffs and bans on beef and grains exports have unleashed the wrath of the country's farmers, prompting fears of domestic supply disruptions and further unrest in these sensitive times. In light of such potentially destabilising aspects, we foresee the industry performing healthily to the end of our forecast period, although hiccups along the way are expected.
The year 2008 has been one in which increasing numbers of local farmers took up soybean production. Between 1994 and 2004, it is estimated that the total of land under soybean cultivation grew by 236%, which reflects global demand for biofuels as environmentally sustainable energy sources. Consequently, Argentina has become a top soybean producing and exporting nation, reaping the benefit from its vast expanses of land. It is now predicted that over 60% of Argentine farmland is now used for soybean cultivation. However, the incompatibility of soybean production with other crops has led to massive reductions in available land for grains and beef.
Although beef production is forecast to grow by 8.1% over the period of our outlook, the reduction in pastures has led to a growing number of US-style feedlots, where the animals are fed with soybean meal. This 'feedlot beef' is perceived to be of lower quality than the grass-reared beef for which the country is renowned and may in future reduce value sales, even as volume sales rise. Export bans and taxes have exacerbated a situation where beef producers have felt that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has undermined their efforts to prosper from foreign markets. This has led to strikes and blockades disrupting local supplies.
While the beef market experiences a period of turbulence, poultry and pig production has been thriving off the back of soybean and corn surpluses, enabling a potential reduction in beef demand and supply. We forecast poultry production to increase more than any other livestock, while pork consumption is likely to have a greater impact on farmers' rearing decisions.
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