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Bulgaria Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Aug 2009, Pages: 43
Bulgaria Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's retail industry
The Q409 BMI Bulgaria Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales are expected to grow from an estimated US$17.44bn in 2008 to US$21.07bn by 2013. Key factors behind retail market expansion include rising disposable income and Bulgarians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains. EU membership gained at the start of 2007 and a substantial amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 6.0% between 2008 and 2013.
Bulgaria’s nominal GDP in 2008 was US$48.57bn, with a decline of 5.3% now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 1.3% is now predicted by BMI between 2008 and 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 7.6mn in 2008 to an estimated 7.5mn by 2013, consumer spending per capita is expected to increase from US$4,472 in 2008 to US$6,725 by 2013.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with higher disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to the UN Population Division, the urban population in Bulgaria is expected to grow from 70.5% of the total in 2005 to 72.2% by 2010, and to more than 78.0% by 2030. Meanwhile, consumer spending per capita of the middle 60% of the Bulgarian population is forecast by the World Bank to rise from US$1,225 in 2000 to US$5,941 in 2012.
Retail sectors that are likely to see substantial growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with BMI estimating that sales will rise by 50%, from an estimated US$1.05bn in 2008 to US$1.58bn by 2013, and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales predicted to increase by 30%, from an estimated US$0.15bn in 2008 to US$0.20bn by 2013.
Assuming an unchanged market share, BMI also estimates that furnishing sales will rise 21% over the forecast period. In 2008, the Austrian home improvement retailer BauMax opened the country’s biggest DIY hypermarket in Plovdiv. According to press reports, the company plans to open 15 more outlets at a cost of more than EUR150mn (US$194mn) over the next five years.
Automotive sales, on the other hand, are predicted to decrease from an estimated US$2.17bn in 2008 to US$2.14bn by the end of the forecast period with the falloff in economic growth and credit availability. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,199bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$1,812bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to reach almost 84% by 2013. For Bulgaria, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.5% is expected to be the same in 2013.
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