Serbia Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, August 2009, Pages: 47
Serbia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's retail industry
The Q409 BMI Serbia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by about10% from an estimated US$19.30bn in 2008 to US$21.23bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, rising disposable income and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales.
Serbia’s nominal GDP was US$44.54bn in 2008, with a decline of 3.8% expected in 2009 as the economy shifts into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.4% is now predicted by BMI between 2008 and 2013. With the population falling slightly from 7.4mn to around 7.3mn, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 19% over the forecast period, reaching US$7,174. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$5,514 in 2008 to US$6,101 by 2013.
Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment that deters foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium-to-long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession. In 2005, almost 67% of the Serbian population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with just under 51% in the crucial 20-44 age range. Just over half of the population was classified by the UN as urban (52.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, although with 48.1% in the 20-44 age band. By this time, 66.8% of the population is expected to be active.
The Serbian retail sector is still under-served and fragmented compared with more mature markets, with only 25m2 of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with the EU average of 270m2. However, the increasing development of organised retail infrastructure will see retail sub-sectors such as over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics and automotives grow substantially over the forecast period.
Sales of OTC pharmaceutical products are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.14bn in 2008 to US$0.24bn by 2013, a rise of 71%. The consumer electronics sector is forecast to grow by 78%, from US$1.10bn in 2008 to US$1.95bn by the end of the period. Automotive sales, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 65%, from US$1.23bn in 2008 to US$2.03bn by 2013.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,199bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$1,812bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to reach almost 84% by 2013. For Serbia, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.6% is expected to fall to 1.5% by 2013.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SWOT ANALYSIS
- Serbia Business Environment SWOT – Retail
- Serbia Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
MARKET OVERVIEW
- Current Trends
- Key Players
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RANKINGS
- Central And Eastern Europe Region
- Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Rating
- Serbia Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
INDUSTRY FORECAST SCENARIO
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2006-2013
- Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, 2008 Estimate
- Organised Retail
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Serbia - Economic Activity
REGIONAL RETAIL OUTLOOK
- Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2006-2013
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2006-2013
- Regional Retail Trends
MASS GROCERY RETAIL
- Serbia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Table: Serbia Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data And Forecasts 2008 And 2018
- Industry Developments
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
- Serbia Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview , 2006-2013
- Industry Developments
AUTOMOTIVES
- Serbia Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Serbia – Newly Registered Road Vehicles And Trailers, Q407 And Q408
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Serbia Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2013
- Trade
- Serbia Autos Exports And Imports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
- Table: Serbia’s Autos Trade, 2006-2013
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT: SERBIA DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000/01
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
METHODOLOGY
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sourcing
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