Romania Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, September 2009, Pages: 56
Romania Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's retail industry
The Q409 BMI Romania Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales will rise by more than 33% by 2013, growing from US$40.87bn in 2008 to an estimated US$54.52bn by 2013. Continuing wage growth, the recent consumer-lending boom and rising disposable income following the introduction of a new flat rate of income tax are key factors behind retail market expansion. The privatisation process since 1990 and EU membership gained in 2007 have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 6.4% in dollar terms.
Romania’s GDP was US$189.95bn in 2008, with a decline of 5.7% expected in 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.0% is now predicted by BMI between 2008 and 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 21.4mn in 2008 to an estimated 21.3mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to grow by 14.0% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$10,105. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,516 in 2008 to US$5,721 by 2013.
Wage growth in Romania, as in many other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, has accelerated quickly over the past few years, having more than doubled between 2000 and 2006 from US$3,791 to US$8,286. The European Commission expects nominal and real 2008 wage growth in Romania to have been the fastest among all 27 member states.
The country has the second biggest population in Central Europe after Poland, with 39.2% of the total in 2005 in the 20-44 age range, according to UN data. This segment of the population, which represents a key element of future retail spending, is forecast to increase to 41.1% by 2010. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as ‘active’ was 70.1% in 2005, and should reach 70.7% by 2010.
Non-food retail sub-sectors benefiting from changing patterns of consumption in Romania include clothing and footwear, which constituted 6.2% of total household monthly expenditure in 2006, up from 5.9% in 2001, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), and furniture, which accounted for 4%, up from 2.9% in 2001.
BMI estimates that food and drink had a 56.1% share of the total retail market in 2008, and this is forecast to rise to 66.0% by 2013. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales, which were worth an estimated US$0.66bn, or 2.0% of total retail sales, in 2008, are expected to grow to US$1.06bn, to 1.9% of total sales, by the end of the forecast period. Automotive sales are estimated at US$4.71bn in 2008, 11.5% of the total retail market, and are forecast to increase to US$13.16bn, or 24.1% of total retail sales, by 2013.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,199bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$1,812bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to reach almost 84% by 2013. For Romania, the estimated 2008 market share of 3.4% is expected to rise to 3.7% by 2013.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SWOT ANALYSIS
- Romania Business Environment SWOT – Retail
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
MARKET OVERVIEW
- Current Trends
- Key Players
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RANKINGS
- Central And Eastern Europe Region
- Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Rating
- Romania Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
INDUSTRY FORECAST SCENARIO
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2006-2013
- Table: Romania’s Retail Sales Breakdown, 2008
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2006-2013
REGIONAL RETAIL OUTLOOK
- Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2006-2013
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2006-2013
- Regional Retail Trends
MASS GROCERY RETAIL
- Romania Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Romania Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Table: Romania Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008 And 2018
- Industry Developments
AUTOMOTIVES
- Romania Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Romanian Automotive Sector, 2008 (CBUs)
- Romania – Key Players In The Passenger Car Market (CBUs), 2007 And 2008
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Romania Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
OTC PHARMACEUTICALS
- Romania Pharmaceuticals SWOT
- Market Summary
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- OTC Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT: ROMANIA DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
- Section 1: Population
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
METHODOLOGY
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sourcing
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