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2009 Report on China's Coal-to-Liquid Market
Market Avenue, June 2009, Pages: 65
With the prices of oil being high, a mania of investment in coal-to-oil had appeared in China two years earlier. But the mania was calmed down with the restraining order from the NDRC, which issued on July 7, 2006 the Notice on Management of the Construction and on Improving the Health of Coal-to-Chemical Industry, requiring that all the authorities stop the approval of coal-to-liquid projects before the government completed the plans about coal-to-liquids. The Notice also pointed out that no approval is granted if the production capacity of a project is less than 3 million tons/year.
The existing coal-to-oil projects which have got approved include Shenhua, 3.2 million tons/year; Yankuang Group, 1 million tons/year; and Lu'an, Shanxi and Yitai, Inner Mongolia, each is of 160,000 tons/year. In addition to those projects of national importance, there are a lot of local projects, whose total production capacity reaches 40.17 million tons/year. The industry is now still thought overheated. In general, coal-to-oil projects are still in their stage of pilot production, and would not be able to move to the fast-growth track until after 2010.
According to the Plans for Mid- and Long-Term Development of Coal-To-Chemical Industry (Draft), the expected output of coal-to-oil is 1.5 million tons in 2010, 10 million in 2015, and 30 million in 2020 respectively.
But there are risks in the coal-to-oil industry, too: Firstly there are risks in mass production. There are no mature coal-to-oil precedents in the world except for in South Africa. Not only does such a project need huge investment, but also it needs advanced technology. Secondly, there are risks about resources. Most of the coal regions are short of water, which is needed in large quantity by coal-to-oil projects, which in turn are energy-guzzling, highly polluted, and would release large quantity of wastes. Thirdly there are cost and market risks. Coal-to-oil won't be profitable unless the prices of oil are high.
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