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Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 92
The Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI expects Serbia’s total drug expenditure to reach RSD76.90bn (US$1.05bn) in 2010, when it will comprise 2.85% of the country’s GDP. However, per-capita drug expenditure will fall from US$148 in 2009 to US$144, due to local currency depreciation. Between 2009 and 2014, the Serbian pharmaceutical market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.66% in local currency and at just 4.69% in US dollar terms.
In the Q111 update of BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Serbia continues to rank in the lower half of the index with a reduced score of 44.6 out of 100, which places the country 16th of the 20 markets surveyed in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. The development of the Serbian pharmaceutical market is closely linked to stability in the country’s economic and political climate. Any economic or political destabilisation might negatively affect pharmaceutical market growth, as the spending power of both the state and the population would be adversely affected. Compared with other CEE countries, Serbia’s political and economic situation is delicate and there are no definite time horizons in terms of its European Union (EU) accession process.
In 2009, pharmaceutical imports decreased significantly by 47.4% to US$334.5mn, following an above expected increase of 30.2% y-o-y to US$636mn in 2008. However, from other available market data, BMI believes pharmaceutical expenditure at consumer prices was positive in 2009 and will continue to grow in 2010. The value of the local dinar is also a concern, although its rapid appreciation in recent years indicated that foreign investors were still willing to gamble on the potentially lucrative Serbian economy. However, dinar depreciation is expected in the coming years, foreign activities in Serbia may become more sluggish.
In September 2010, German drug company Stada Arzneimittel announced a partial halt in drug sales in Serbia, following fears over the inability of Serbian wholesalers to pay their bills. The current situation arose as state-run Serbian hospitals are either not paying or delaying their payments to wholesalers.
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