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3Q09 Japan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, September 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Japan to reach 131 million in 2013 with SOFTBANK MOBILE taking market share away from NTT DOCOMO and KDDI over the next five years
The Mobile Operator Forecast on Japan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Japan’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Japan include: NTT DOCOMO, Inc., KDDI Corporation, SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp., and WILLCOM, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
List of Charts:
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: Mar 2003 - Mar 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Japan's wireless market
+3.5% Industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in Japan
-10.4% industry-average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
Average MOU/Sub of 134 minutes per month in 1Q.2009
NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA declined significantly in the latest quarter
-5.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Japan to reach 131 million in 2013
- We expect the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Japan to continue increasing over the next five years. Our model predicts that it will increase from 109.3 million in 2008 to 131.8 million in 2013.
- NTT DOCOMO will continue to serve the highest number of subscribers among other operators. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber base will increase from 54.2 million in 2008 to 60.6 million in 2013.
- KDDI will continue to be the second largest operator in Japan with 35.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013, according to our model.
SOFTBANK MOBILE's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- Our model predicts that NTT DOCOMO's subscriber market share will decrease from 49.6% in 2008 to 46.0% in 2013. Instead, SOFTBANK MOBILE will see its market share increase from 18.3% in 2008 to 23.6% in 2013.
- We forecast that KDDI's share of total subscribers will also decline from 28.0% in 2008 to 27.1% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that WILLCOM's market share will fall from 4.2% to 3.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels will continue declining from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the operator-wide average monthly ARPU in Japan will decrease from 5,571 yen in 2008 to 4,000 yen in 2013.
- We expect that SOFTBANK MOBILE will continue to charge lower tariffs than its competitors to gain market share. According to our forecasting model, ARPU levels at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will decline over the next five years to reach 4,070 yen, 4,422 yen, and 3,370 yen respectively in 2013.
NTT DOCOMO will be enjoying the highest EBITDA margins among mobile operators in Japan
- We expect that NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will continue to be higher than those of KDDI and SOFTBANK MOBILE over the next several years.
- We forecast that EBITDA margins at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will be approximately 34.8%, 30.2%, and 25.6% respectively in 2013.
- NTT DOCOMO, Inc.
- KDDI Corporation
- SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp.
- WILLCOM, Inc.