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Bahrain Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 52
Bahrain Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's retail industry.
Q409 Bahrain Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$2.94bn in 2008 to US$4.05bn by 2013. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Bahrain’s retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, growing interest in Western styles of retailing, and a steady rise in disposable income.
Bahrain’s nominal GDP was US$21.90bn in 2008, with a decline of 0.1% now predicted for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.2% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. Although the population is forecast to decline from 1.07mn in 2008 to 1.01mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise to US$19,962.
Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Information’s tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals have risen by an average of 10-15% a year over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Tourism arrivals are projected to rise by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next decade.
Bahrain’s retail market will also continue to benefit from events such as the annual Formula One motor race, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004.
In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.7% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 72.7% of the population is expected to be economically active, but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to fall to 39.9%. A very high level of urbanisation is contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 91% by 2010. About 89% of the population live in the two principal cities of Manama and Muharraq.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include automotives, with sales forecast to rise by nearly 39% during the period, from US$0.84bn in 2008 to US$1.17bn by 2013, while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$0.43bn in 2008 to US$0.54bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 25%. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales, however, are expected to decrease by more than 6%, from US$0.013bn in 2008 to US$0.012bn by 2013.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$382bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$660.41bn. In 2008, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 80.7% by 2013. For Bahrain, the estimated 2008 market share of 0.8% is expected to fall to 0.7% by 2013.
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