|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
China Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 103
This China Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's oil and gas industry
The latest China Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 34.81% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 45.16% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in 2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. China’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 17.60%, while its share of production was 21.36%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 20.70%, with the country accounting for 20.09% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast the publisher has stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Chinese GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 6.8% for 2009, down from 9.0% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 7.6% growth in 2010, 8.4% in 2011, followed by 7.7% in 2012 and 7.6% in 2013. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. They are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 3.95mn b/d by 2013, although the country is expected to pump 3.85mn b/d in 2009. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 24.1% in 2008-2013, implying demand of 9.92mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 5.97mn b/d by 2013. Between 2008 and 2018 the publisher isforecasting a decrease in Chinese oil production of 2.50%. Crude volumes will peak in 2013 at 3.95mn b/d, then fall steadily to 3.70mn b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 46.62%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 11.73mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from 76bcm in 2008 to a possible 118bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 92.9%, this provides an import requirement rising to 37.6bcm – increasingly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found to the rear of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
China still ranks seventh in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating (just behind the Philippines), with a strong resource position being countered by a less impressive regulatory structure and substantial state involvement. The risk environment is also less attractive than for many Asian peers. Over the medium to long term, China has the capability to progress up through the rankings and claim a higher slot in the regional league table. The country is now ranked outright first ahead of India in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. This quarter it has a one-point lead over India, but is four points clear of third-placed Australia.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
|
|
|
|
