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India Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
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Description: |
This India Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's oil and gas industry
The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.93% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.57% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in 2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 9.03%, while its share of production is put at 8.58%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.66%, with the country accounting for 10.24% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast the publisher has stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Indian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.0% for 2009, down from 6.7% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 6.4% growth in 2010, followed by 7.0% in 2011-2013. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2008 averaged 766,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, they see production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2011. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 3.69mn b/d by 2013. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 2.76mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from 41bcm in 2008 to 54bcm, with domestic supply up from 31bcm in 2008 to at least 50bcm by 2013. Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of 12.27%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011 at 950,000b/d, then falling steadily to 860,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 46.79%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 4.23mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from 31bcm in 2008 to a possible 65bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 67.3%, India is likely to be importing up to 4.3bcm per annum of gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provide regional and country-specific projections.
India ranks third, behind Vietnam, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits well ahead of Pakistan and Malaysia, but 11 points behind Australia and five behind Vietnam. The country is now second and just one point behind China in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a highgrowth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is three points ahead of Australia, with scope to pull further away from the more mature Asian energy economy. |
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Contents: |
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
- India Business Environment SWOT
India Energy Market Overview
- Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ranking
- Asia Pacific Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Downstream Scores
- India Upstream Rating – Overview
- India Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
- India Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
- India Downstream Rating – Overview
- India Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
- India Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: India Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: India Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Energy Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: India - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players – India Oil & Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Company Monitor
- Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
- Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL)
- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
- Reliance Industries
- Oil India Ltd (OIL)
- GAIL (India)
- Cairn India
- BP – Summary
- BG – Summary
- Shell – Summary
- Total – Summary
- Oilex – Summary
- GSPC – Summary
- Eni – Summary
- Essar – Summary
Glossary of Terms
- Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
- Introduction
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
- Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- India Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How They Generate Their Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross Checks
- Sources |
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Companies Mentioned |
- Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
- Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL)
- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
- Reliance Industries
- Oil India Ltd (OIL)
- GAIL (India)
- Cairn India
- BP
- BG
- Shell
- Total
- Oilex
- GSPC
- Eni
- Essar |
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