Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, September 2009, Pages: 63
This Taiwan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's oil and gas industry
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.93% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in 2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Taiwan’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 2.79%, while its share of production was minimal. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.47%. For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Taiwanese real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is now forecast by BMI to contract by 4.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.1% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 1.5% growth in 2010, 3.0% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012, followed by 3.5% in 2013. State-owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is tasked with securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 1.12mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the 2008 figure of 12.8bcm to 13.9bcm by 2013, supplied largely by LNG imports.
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Taiwan’s oil consumption from 1.07mn b/d to 1.24mn b/d, with the country’s refining capacity rising from 1.20mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from 12.8bcm in 2008 to a possible 15.6bcm by 2018, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Taiwan still ranks 14th and last in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country also ranks last in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, some distance behind nearest rival Hong Kong. The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Taiwan Political SWOT
- Taiwan Economic SWOT
- Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
- Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ranking
- Asia Pacific Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Downstream Scores
- Taiwan Upstream Rating – Overview
- Taiwan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
- Taiwan Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
- Taiwan Downstream Rating – Overview
- Taiwan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
- Taiwan Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Taiwan Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Taiwan Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
- Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Energy Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity
- Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Table: Key Upstream Player
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- CPC Corporation
- Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC)
- NPC – Summary
- Tung Ting Gas – Summary
- Shell – Summary
- ExxonMobil – Summary
Glossary of Terms
- Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
- Introduction
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
- Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Taiwan Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How They Generate Their Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross checks
- Sources
- CPC Corporation
- Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC)
- NPC
- Tung Ting Gas
- Shell
- ExxonMobil
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