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India Metals Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 54
India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's metals industry
Indian metals industries are performing strongly and are set for double-digit growth rates from 2010 as capacity expands and demand soars, according to BMI’s latest India Metals Report.
The government’s fiscal stimulus has had a positive and immediate impact on Indian industry. In June, India’s industrial output grew at the fastest pace for 16 months, with growth at 7.8% representing the six consecutive month of growth. Industrial growth has helped to boost steel consumption, which rose 5.8% y-o-y to 17.31mn tonnes in the April-July period. In turn, production grew 3.8% y-o-y to 18.8mn tonnes. Imports and exports fell 3% and 41.3% to 1.99mn tonnes and 925,000 tonnes, respectively.
BMI forecasts year-end finished steel consumption of 62.2mn tonnes, an increase of 6.0% y-o-y, with H2 set for stronger rates of growth and a recovery in longs as construction picks up in Q4. The industry is becoming ever more focused on the domestic market, with 4.8mn tpa of new capacity due to come online in FY2009/10. For the 2009 calendar year, BMI is forecasting a 1.9% rise in steel output to 56.1mn tonnes, due in large part to the 12.4% drop in output in Q1. Exports will fall by around 32% to 5.2mn tonnes in 2009 as a result of the global downturn, but this will be offset by the rise in consumption. In FY08/09, flat product imports fell 20% to 4.32mn tonnes, due to a 23% fall in hot rolled coil to 2.2mn tonnes and a 33% fall in plates to 947,390 tonnes. However, imports of hot rolled sheet surged 341% to 51,680 tonnes, imports of cold rolled sheet and coil rose 214% to 612,980 tonnes and imports of tinplate grew 9% to 52,160 tonnes. Electrical steel imports fell 6% to 185,500 tonnes. India also imported 506,380 tonnes of longs, down 4.3%. China was the largest steel exporter to India, followed by South Korea and Japan.
In the aluminium sector, there remains a significant danger of medium-term over-capacity due to projects pursued by the three major players, Hindalco, Vedanta Resources and Nalco. Nevertheless, aluminium producers are currently still able to report a profit margin, despite prices plunging. Indian aluminium producers can produce aluminium at a cost of US$1,000-1,200 due to the country’s plentiful bauxite resources, which is half the cost of Chinese production.
BMI is highly optimistic about India’s long-term potential, which rests on the country’s abundant high quality iron ore and bauxite, high level of skills and relatively low capital costs owing to low land and construction costs. However, greater rationalisation, cuts in logistics and raw materials costs and increasing value-added products will be key strategies for overcoming the downturn. In the long-term, further consolidation is expected with M&A activity and greater vertical integration between mining and the production of finished products leading to economies of scale. This will be essential in making India a producer for the global market, which will support growth after the economic crisis.
Following BMI’s revision in forecasts, we believe that output in the 2011 calendar year will reach 78.3mn tonnes, and by 2013 it should reached around 107mn tonnes, fuelled by new capacity additions. This would represent a rise in output of 94% over the five-year period and make India more self-sufficient in crude steel, leading to a stagnation in imports at around 7.2-7.3mn tonnes. At the same time, hot-rolling capacity is set to rise 74% to 97.9mn tonnes. Strong growth in output should ensure that Indian steel exports exceed 10mn tonnes in 2013, continuing to represent around 10% of output.
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